The
outbreak of Covid-19 has revealed an unsettling reality in Latin American
Politics. Particularly, that democracy in the region is incredibly fragile.
Thanks to the pandemic, the weakness in institutions is being revealed, and
authoritarian leaders are taking advantage. Covid-19 has particularly exacerbated
the economic crisis, which has led to an increase in political tensions.
The
effects are already underway. In Chile, the polling company Latinobarometro
reported that support for democracy has fallen to 48%. About 30% of people
reported they were indifferent to the type of government.
Alarmingly, only 24% reported feeling satisfied with democracy (Wilson Center).
Part of the reason why support for democracy has fallen so dramatically is because
of the low economic growth between 2014 and 2020. Furthermore, there has been a
blatant amount of corruption and scandal plaguing Latin America. Notably, the Odebrecht
scandal embroiled over ten countries in cases of bribery and corruption. These
kinds of things understandably cause people to lose faith in their
institutions. As a result, in 2019 protests occurred in several countries only to
be paused due to the lockdowns necessary to control the pandemic. So, unrest was
brewing far before the virus hit. Furthermore, the Wilson Center reports the GDP
of the region will fall by 9.1%, and roughly about 45 million people will fall into
poverty. This brings the total of people living in poverty to 230.9 million.
As a result, the combination of the pandemic and the unhappiness with economic conditions has empowered authoritarian leaders to overstay their terms and undermine their constitutions (Kurmanaev, 2020). Plenty of them have used the guise of lockdown measures to oppress political opponents and gain control of the military. According to Kurmanaev, "There are now five Latin American and Caribbean nations with recent democratic histories — Venezuela, Nicaragua, Guyana, Bolivia and Haiti — where governments weren’t chosen in free and fair elections or have overstayed their time in office. It’s the highest number since the late 1980s, when the Cold War receded and several countries in the grips of civil war or military dictatorships transitioned to peace and democracy.
In Nicaragua, President Daniel
Ortega released inmates due to the threat of the virus, but kept political dissidents
locked up. In Guyana, a lockdown was used to suppress protests against the government.
They recently lost the elections but are using the virus as an excuse to
overstay their term.
In El Salvador, President Nayib
Bukele ignored a Supreme Court ruling limiting executive power. He has
placed hundreds of people in containment centers, claiming it was to control Covid-19.
He also launched intense attacks against the media criticizing his Covid-19 measures,
claiming they were trying to destabilize his government to benefit other partisan
interests. Even worse, he took complete control of the military and made them
storm a parliamentary session to strongarm legislators into approving his budget
proposal (Kitroeff, 2020). Covid has allowed authoritarians to amass power in
a relatively covert way, as they all claim their actions are a way to solve the
health emergency.
The widening
inequality caused by Covid-19 has led to escalating tensions among social
classes. As a result, populist leaders place a spotlight on the “oligarchy”, or
upper class blaming them for stealing resources from the people. They have
launched an “Us vs. Them” rhetoric that emboldens authoritarian leaders,
placing them as the saviors of the struggling classes. As a result, people are far
less likely to criticize any unconstitutional actions governments take. For
example, despite the many violations Nayib Bukele has committed against human
rights, he is the president with the highest poll ratings in all of Latin
America, with a hefty 71% approval. (Statista, 2020). This is highly alarming
because at the same time Latinobarometro reports only 27% of Salvadoran people
are satisfied with democracy.
High
crime rates also make democracy fragile. The rising unemployment due to the
pandemic will make many young people easy pickings for gangs. Currently it has
been reported that in Mexico, Brazil, and El Salvador, gangs have taken it
upon themselves to become a COVID patrol of sorts, enforcing lockdowns (Wilson
Center). This has expanded their territorial power. As a result, people have
begun preferring higher military and police presence to control the gangs. This
gives authoritarian leaders an alarming amount of power, as people grow less
concerned with any possible human rights violations the military commits in the
name of the government. The following figure shows data on the percentage of people who would support a military coup in the face of high crime.
It shows how in a time of crisis the preservation of democracy is not the first thing on people’s minds. Furthermore, most countries in Latin America are about to begin election cycles. It is entirely possible the region will turn toward authoritarianism given their discontent with current democratic governments. More than likely the results of these elections will lead to even more stagnation, violations of human rights, and corruption. If Latin American wants to prevent disaster, democratic institutions need to actually start working according to the will of the people and not their own self interest.
Sources
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/world/americas/latin-america-democracy-pandemic.html
https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/ab2018/2018-19_AmericasBarometer_Regional_Report_10.13.19.pdf
https://www.latinobarometro.org/latOnline.jsp
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/what-covid-19-revealing-about-latin-americas-politics
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1015645/latin-american-president-approval-rate/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html