36 governor’s posts and hundreds of state legislators' seats are up for election this coming Saturday in Nigeria. This election, according to CNN new sources, marks a, what many hope to be, an end to the violence and rigging that has normally been associated with Nigerian elections. Nigerian officials believe this election will provide a peak into what can be expected during the Presidential election the following week. Although "elections" were held in 1999 and 2003, after three decades of military rule, they were not considered fair and free elections by normal standards. The current President, Olusegun Obasanjo, who is required to step down, due to a two term limit, has promised that these elections will be fair, free, and credible, however, Nigerians are skeptical. One Nigerian woman commented that she believed it would be safer to stay at home than risk the violence experienced in past elections. Nigerian politicians have, in the past, recruited young "thugs" to intimate voters, which has resulted in more than 70 deaths.
Although Nigerian officials claim to have high hopes for this coming election period, a number of uncertainties still remain. Political analysts are worried that if the governor and state legislator elections do not run smoothly in favor of the current party in power, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), the party will make "deals" and do whatever is necessary to ensure that their candidate wins the Presidential election. Additionally, in addition to fear of violence and rigging, while the electoral body says that 60 million Nigerians are registered to vote independent monitors are arguing that voter registration was sketchy. Voters have not had the opportunity to confirm that their names are on the voter registration list nor have they been informed about the location of polling stations. Ghost ballots, ballot stuffing, violence at the election stations and shoddy voter registration all stand in the way of a successful election day on Saturday.
If these elections do not go as smoothly as hoped, what is next for Nigeria? Will the third time "be the charm" for Nigerian elections? I will keep my fingers crossed for Nigeria and hope that, despite their rocky past, the country will find the beginnings of legitimacy in a truly democractic election.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
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6 comments:
These types of issues surrounding democratic elections in developing countries are not unique to Nigeria. Last summer I had the opportunity to be an official foreign observer of the Mexican presidential elections. It is very interesting that many of the issues cited in this article are exactly the same as those in the Mexican elections. Polls were rigged, votes were bought, voter registration was difficult, people were "erased" from the lists etc... I soon realized that as a citizen of the United States, I take for granted the transparency of our electoral system. When my host mother pointed across the street to a huge hot water heater and told me that the family of 8 had sold their votes to a certain party in order to have hot water, I realized that for many this is a political reality. It is especially difficult in developing countries, when people don't care who comes to power because either way it won't affect their daily lives. They would much rather have houses, food or hot water than freely elect a political candidate who will not do anything for them. Thus, it seems that humanitarian and electoral issues are closely intertwined. Political parties know how to exploit the voters and they are not afraid to do it. How is something like this overcome? I am still looking for the answer.
I am sorry to have to say that, based on the country’s history, little will change with unfair elections in Nigeria. I think what makes this situations worse is that the United States is threatening to cut off ties with Nigeria if the elections do not “live up to democratic standards.” The United States has invested a significant amount of time and money to help Nigeria establish a democracy after years of military rule. Obviously, this was done because of the United State’s interest in Nigerian oil. The United States is doing a disservice to the Nigerian people simply because the country is not ready, at the moment, to hold free and fair elections. http://allafrica.com/stories/200704110557.html
Even though I believe the cutting off of U.S. ties will only fuel the problem in NIgeria, the threat of the disconnection will hopefully help influence a fair democratic election. Even if it does influence some issues I cannot forsee it solving their problem entirely. Fair elections will need to be phased in over years, we cannot expect to see it happen all at once. Yet, I was surprised to see that Nigeria obeyed the rule of leading for only two terms. I think this is an important step in the right direction.
Ryan makes a very interesting point, and though it may be very controversial I agree with him. I am sure that many Africans do not like the fact that the US makes such threats, and I am not sure that I like it either. Over the semester the point has been made a number of times that truly FREE TRADE is the best thing the US could do for African countries, and I believe it is. It is import that Nigeria’s elections be without question or problems, but the US should focus on free trade as a solution to Africa’s problems.
Update:
Last week I blogged about the upcoming governmental and Presidential elections in Nigeria. The election day has now come and gone. Umaru Yar'Adua won the Presidential election with 70% (24.6 million votes). While this is the first time Nigeria will replace one elected civilian head of state with another, Mr. Yar'Adua is a member of the People's Democratic Pary (as is the, now, outgoing President Olusegun Obasanjo). This was a worry expressed in the weeks leading up to the election. The Nigerian elections have been accused of being rigged and at least 200 citizens were killed during violence at the polling stations.
Interestingly, President Obasanjo made a public announcement to Nigerians claiming that the elections had "not been perfect." However, according to election officials, that appears to be an understatement. Thugs were reported as stuffing the ballot boxes with votes for the PDP and elections in many areas of the country started very late, if at all.
So now, if these elections were to test Nigerians democracy ... it seems like they may have failed the test. Read the article and decide for yourself - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6584393.stm
Emily:
thanks for the update -- what do you think Nigerians would think if the U.S. criticized it for it's not so transparent election results? The U.S. presidential election results between George Bush and Al Gore were essentially decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. How can we expect elections in African countries to go seamlessly when we can't even figure it out in one of the most technologically-advanced and educated countries in the world?
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