The International Implications of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Launch

North Korea has been accused of firing two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. While the launch was just a test to identify the functionality of the missiles, North Korea is banned, under UN Security Council resolutions, from testing ballistic missiles. Given the disregard of these resolutions and the potency of these missiles, this test, along with a test of two non-ballistic missiles that occurred a few days prior, poses a threat to the international community. These two tests follow the launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile, which North Korea described to be "the world's most powerful weapon." While the full capacity of these missiles is not yet certain, some studies attribute this missile with the ability to travel 10,000km, truly making it an intercontinental missile and thus a serious threat.  

These missile launches follow a North Korean trend of performing military tests around the time of a regime change in countries they have foreign ties with. For example, within the first four months of Barack Obama's inauguration, North Korea launched a long-range missile and performed a nuclear test. The same can be said about when Donald Trump took office in 2017 and within a month North Korea launched a mid-range missile. Similar demonstrations have taken place when South Korea has had regime changes. By showcasing their advanced military capabilities, North Korea aims to intimidate countries with which they have diplomatic relations with. This intimidation tactic seeks to scare new regimes into giving in to North Korean demands. These demands could be summed up by saying that North Korea would like to have U.S. sanctions lifted while being able to maintain its weapons capability.

The Biden Administration has not yet released its new foreign policy towards North Korea, and thus the future actions of North Korea are uncertain. However, it could be expected that if the United States and South Korea don't comply with their demands, North Korea is likely to escalate their provocations. The first two missiles fired after Joe Biden's inauguration were not considered to be serious threats, but North Korea's willingness to escalate was made evident by their latest weapons tests. The Biden Administration is yet to comment on North Korea's actions, but it is unlikely that Washington will comply with these demands after looking to strengthen their relationship with allies. Additionally, President Biden is not likely to engage with Kim Jong-Un unless he agrees to denuclearize. Given both sides' unwillingness to compromise, it is probable that the standoff will continue. This could mean that North Korea continues to test long-range ballistic missiles and possibly even turn to nuclear testing. This course of actions will likely lead the U.S. to try to implement more sanctions on North Korea, further straining the relationship. Such an outcome could quickly turn violent and dangerous. In order to avoid such a violent outcome, it is best if the Biden Administration tries to better the relationship by conceding to certain demands while turning down others in their upcoming foreign policy bill. 

References

Bicker, L. (2021, March 25). North Korea fires two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56518998.

BBC. (2021, January 18). North Korea's missile and nuclear programme. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689.

Kim, H.-jin. (2021, March 25). EXPLAINER: What N Korean missile tests mean for US relations. AP NEWS. https://apnews.com/article/what-north-korea-missiles-tests-mean-us-relations-e27c50a6b3c61a5e524e8f81c6825276.

Allen, J. (2019, February 27). Trump dines with Kim in Vietnam just before Cohen goes on the attack. NBCNews.com. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-dines-kim-vietnam-just-cohen-goes-nuclear-capitol-hill-n976566.