China’s Belt and Road initiative: Imperialism Through Infrastructure?

Olivia D

The Silk Road was a web of trade routes connecting China and the Far East with the
Middle East and Europe. The network spread culture and trade across the world with China as its center and eventually died after succumbing to economic pressure from the Ottoman Empire.

Five hundred years later, the “rise of China” began. Today, China is considered an authoritarian state with significant power on the world stage, which it only hopes to expand. One way China is doing this is through a “new silk road.”

Mark, Joshua. “Silk Road.” Ancient History Encyclopedia, 16 Oct. 2020, www.ancient.eu/Silk_Road.

In 2013, the president of China, Xi Jinping, mentioned in a speech in Kazakhstan that he wanted to build an economic belt along the former routes of the Silk Road. The initiative would essentially build roads, bridges, ports, and other infrastructure in other countries financed by the Chinese government. The plan is two pronged: a “silk road” on land and a maritime “silk road.”

The plan is called the Belt and Road Initiative and has already attracted the attention of over 60 countries representing ⅔ of the world population. One of the largest projects in the initiative includes a $60 billion investment in a China-Pakistan economic corridor connecting China to the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea. Morgan Stanley predicts this project could cost China roughly $1.2-1.3 trillion by 2027.

What does China hope to achieve from this major investment? The answer is unsettling for countries aiming to promote democracy abroad. China has both geopolitical and economic motivations for this project. Slower economic growth in recent years and the “pivot to Asia,” which aimed to expand U.S. economic relations with countries except China, have pressured Xi Jingping to look for new markets elsewhere. China has since financed the creation of ports along the Indian Ocean in Djibouti, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Experts believe China intends to create ports in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Hong Kong as well. These “ports” would in reality serve as naval bases created to protect Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean.
Vox. “China’s Trillion Dollar Plan to Dominate Global Trade.” YouTube, uploaded by VOX, 5 Apr. 2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvXROXiIpvQ

How has China been able to finance this? China is a unitary state where all of the power lies in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party led by Xi Jingping. Xi is able to act with significant authority due to China’s high capacity and autonomy. China’s rise since the 1970s has turned it into an economic powerhouse with a high capacity to implement massive infrastructure projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative. China’s political system is authoritarian which provides it significant autonomy as political leaders are not very worried about being reelected based on public opinion of their actions.

How does this project compare to other countries? No other country in the world is doing anything similar to China. Other countries have undergone massive infrastructure projects, notably India and The United Arab Emirates. However, none have gone so far as to use infrastructure as a tenet of their foreign and economic policy. Some comparisons have been made between the Marshall Plan and the Belt Road Initiative. The Marshall plan was a policy of the United States which provided relief to European and Asian countries after the destruction caused by World War II. The policy lended money to countries in need and in return, American ideals were promoted rather than the communist values of the Soviet Union. Similarly, China is making relations with countries previously off its radar: Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, Kenya, and more. These relationships give China easy access to spread its authoritarian principles to other countries, especially in the wake of decreased investment in the area from democratic countries such as the United States. The Belt Road Initiative is different from the Marshall Plan in two key areas. First, the Belt Road Initiative is limitless while the Marshall Plan was only intended to help rebuild Europe and Asia in the post-war period. Secondly, the Belt Road Initiative is on a much larger scale than the Marshall plan as it has significantly more funding.

“Belt and Road Initiative.” World Bank, 2018, www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative.

What does this mean in the global context? For countries trying to uphold democracy around the world, this project of the Chinese government poses a significant threat. China is making relationships with countries that have been historically less important in western foreign and economic policy. An alliance of authoritarian countries that have significant economic power over the United States and other democracies would not only be bad for democracies across the world, but would also weaken the power of those fighting for civil liberties inside China such as Hong Kongers. Some ways to rival this project would be for the United States or international organizations such as the E.U. to prioritize policy with African countries which seem to be a specific target of the Belt and Road initiative. Some experts say the United States should strengthen trans-atlantic cooperation to take a stand against China’s expanding authoritarianism.

Although covered by a benign banner of infrastructure policy, the Chinese Road and Belt Initiative has proven to be much more than a practical program to improve conditions in countries outside of China. Instead, the Belt and Road Initiative has the potential to create a dangerous power dynamic that rivals the influence of democracy across the world and may make authoritarianism the prominent form of government.

Refrences

Chatzky, Andrew, and James McBride. “China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative.” Council on

Foreign Relations, 21 Feb. 2019, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative.

History.com Editors. “Silk Road.” HISTORY, 26 Sept. 2019, www.history.com/topics/ancient-middle-east/silk-road.

“LibGuides: Federal, Unitary & Confederate Government Systems: Home.” Skylinecollege.Edu, Skyline College, 2020, guides.skylinecollege.edu/c.php?g=279117

Mills, Fred. “Top 5 Massive Infrastructure Projects.” The B1M,

2017, www.theb1m.com/video/top-5-massive-infrastructure-projects.

NowThis World. “Why Is China Investing Billions in Africa? | NowThis World.” YouTube, uploaded by Now This World, 16 Dec. 2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HwxDxrKzMk.

Rhodes, Ben. “Missing America” from Crooked Media, 25 August 2020, https://crooked.com/podcast/3-authoritarianism/

Shen, Simon, and Wilson Chan. “A Comparative Study of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Marshall Plan.” Palgrave Communications, vol. 4, no. 1, 2018. Crossref, doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0077-9.

Vox. “China’s Trillion Dollar Plan to Dominate Global Trade.” YouTube, uploaded by VOX, 5 Apr. 2018, www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvXROXiIpvQ.

Water-related Terrorism in the Middle East

With the effects of water scarcity being magnified by global warming in recent years, terrorist and extremist organizations in the Middle East are more frequently weaponizing water to achieve political and economic objectives by controlling populations of people. The climate crisis has increased the spread of desertification and has prolonged periods of drought and famine in arid regions of the world, creating conflict over water (Bodetti, 2019). Fragile states home to terrorist organizations such as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey, and Yemen are among countries most susceptible to water-related terrorism (NewInt, 2020). By taking control of dams, irrigation systems, pipelines, and wells, militant groups are able to suppress communities reliant on those sources for water. Restricting peoples’ access to water has resulted in a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East, displacing millions of people across international borders.

Water scarcity and desertification on the rise due to global warming. Photo: Foreign Policy Research Institute

Impacts of Water Scarcity
By the year 2030, a quarter of the world’s population will live in locations that experience high water stress, such as drought (Dene, 2020). Water scarcity and global warming have increased desertification in dry areas that already deal with water shortages. Essentially, climate change acts as a “force multiplier” that exacerbates the effects environmental issues have on communities (Bodetti, 2019).

Figure 1: Freshwater sources continue to trend downward for Arab countries. (Middle East Institute, 2017)

Syrian Water Crisis
The crisis occurring in Syria today provides an example of how water is being weaponized against a group of people. The Kurdish minority population and rebel groups fighting for independence in Northern Syria have been denied access to water after Turkey, a Syrian ally, dammed the flow of rivers downstream into Syria, shut-down water plants, and bombed water stations. Overall this has reduced nearly 40% of the water flow into Syria and has left 650,000 people without adequate access to water just as the coronavirus pandemic hit (NewInt, 2020).

Syrian refugees must walk miles to neighboring towns in search of freshwater. (UrduPoint, 2020)

A Rise in Terrorism
Terrorist organizations in the Middle East have increasingly turned to water-related terrorism as a means of achieving their goals. It has increased 268 percent from 1970 to 2016 with the highest concentration of events being in the post-9/11 era. Terrorists often target infrastructure as a way to disrupt government facilities and influence populations (Veilleux, 2018). Over the past decade in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has fought the government over control of major dams and water reservoirs. Once in their possession, terrorist groups are then able to exploit populations of people affected by water scarcity (NewInt, 2020). By weaponizing water, terrorists can recruit more members by fulfilling the promise of providing water and other resources. Farmers in agriculture-based economies are most vulnerable to recruitment as a way to support themselves and their families when drought damages crop yield (Bodetti, 2019). Similar tactics are being employed by terrorist organizations all over the world like Al Shabaab in Somalia and Boko Haram in Africa’s Sahel Region (Dene, 2020).

Relation to Comparative Politics
The issue of water-related terrorism relates directly to comparative politics because it occurs on an international scale. Terrorist organizations and oppressive governments have historically been utilizing this war crime, although it has increased in frequency and magnitude over the past few decades. The weaponization of water displaces millions of people across borders into other countries and has created the worst refugee crisis since WWII, with about 5.5 million refugees fleeing from the Syrian crisis alone (Hjelmgaard, 2018). The effects of damming rivers and diverting water flow have long reaching effects across state boundaries. Furthermore, the implications of anthropogenic climate change have worsened the problem of water scarcity for the Middle East. Climate change is a global crisis, and preventative action must occur on an international scale in order to stop environmental degradation in regions that experience it to a greater degree.







Sources

Barton, A. (2020). Water In Crisis - Spotlight Middle East. The Water Project. https://thewaterproject.org/water-crisis/water-in-crisis-middle-east

Bodetti, A. (2019, July 25). Climate Change Expands the Terrorist Threat | YaleGlobal Online. Yale Global. https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/climate-change-expands-terrorist-threat

Dene, M. (2020, July 26). Rising Tides of Terrorism. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/07/rising-tides-of-terrorism/

Hjelmgaard, K. U. T. (2018, December 19). Syria conflict explained: How did we end up here? USA TODAY. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/04/09/syria-conflict-explained-bashar-assad/498756002/

Veilleux, J. (2018, May 8). New Global Analysis Finds Water-Related Terrorism Is On the Rise. New Security Beat. https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/05/global-analysis-finds-water-related-terrorism-rise/

Water as a Weapon of War. (2020, June 12). New Internationalist. https://newint.org/features/2020/06/02/water-weapon-war

Switzerland Referendum: What is the State of Direct Democracy in Our Modern World?

Switzerland is a rare example of direct democracy within our modern world. Their citizens often vote on specific policy issues with referendums. Recently, the nation held a referendum to end an accord with the European Union that allows the free movement of people in and out of the country. Proponents of the bill argued that its passing would give Switzerland greater control over its border by allowing them to only select the immigrants they want. Opponents of this bill argued that its passing would bring uncertainty into a healthy economy during a pandemic, and prevent many Swiss workers from working elsewhere in Europe. The result of the vote was an overwhelming rejection of the new proposal as 62% voted against it and 38% voted for it.


The significance of this referendum is to show the existence of direct democracy in our modern world. Switzerland is considered a direct democracy because their citizens directly vote for many specific issues on the ballot. This is quite different than most western democracies, such as the United States and Great Britain. Both the United States and United Kingdom have instances of direct democracy, but not to the scale that occurs in Switzerland. As the world has recently seen, the United Kingdom left the European Union after a referendum known as Brexit. This was an example of direct democracy, but it does not define the political nature of the United Kingdom. In the UK, all bills must pass both Houses of Parliament, but are not subject to a direct vote from the citizens. However, in Switzerland, the citizens can reject any bill with their optional referendum.

In the modern world, there continues to be a debate regarding the legitimacy of democracy, as many push for the implementation of more direct democracy. While I agree that direct democracy works well in a small nation such as Switzerland, I do not believe that it is applicable to large and diverse nations such as the United Kingdom and the United States. These two sovereignties are defined by different states and nations within them, causing the existence of many factions. Both the states and individual nations within these commonwealths each have individual desires and needs. If direct democracy were to be implemented on a federal level in the U.S. and U.K., it could lead to the tyranny of the majority as policies could be implemented nation-wide that do not fit the needs of individual states.


Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54316316

By Calvin K.

Italy: Dreams of Reformation and the Five Star Movement

Italian Politics

Today, Italy is an economic powerhouse in Europe with an equally sized military. It has seen it's fair share of conflict in the 20th century but now it is seeing its own internal conflict. With such a wide array of ideas in the nation, Italy suffers from having "too many cooks in the kitchen." To break it down, the parliament consists of four different parties and two main coalitions, the center-left and center-right coalitions. In these coalitions exists nine more parties. All-in-all, the country has a complex distribution 13 dominant parties with many smaller regionally-based powers as well ("The Local", 2017). Historically, the parliament has suffered from high-levels of corruption at all levels of government, as well as being slow at implementing change. Italy's youth wants to change this.

Five Star Movement supporters with founder, Beppe Grillo, at a protest. Photo: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP

Virtual to Reality: The Five Star Movement

The Five Star Movement (also called Movimento 5 Stelle or M5S) formed to overcome the problems in the Italian Government through an "online democracy" ideology. M5S was formed in 2009 by comedian Beppe Grillo and web strategist Gianroberto Casaleggio over the internet . They aimed for a political party which could govern via the internet without having to conform to the establishment or any political group. Using Grillo's blog and Meetup.com, M5S soon gained popularity and eventually gained traction through protests. Its initial strengths came from the idea of taking political elites out of office and replacing them with a direct democracy using online voting. Today, the Five Star Movement focuses on anti-establishment, environmentalist, and anti-globalist policies (Newell, 2016). 

The Five Star Movement has definitely shown to have an interesting combination of ideas. Due to the nature of the party, many different ideas are presented. They are descriptively right-wing, however, they do hold some left-wing values such as sustainable energy and legalization of gay marriage. Because of this, Five Star is also referred to as Italy's modern populist party.

Matteo Salvini, The League's hard-right leader. Photo: Reuters

Struggles of the Party

While being a relatively new party in the Italian government, Five Star is facing many issues with opposing parties and from within the party itself. When Five Star ran in the general election Parliament, they won the most votes of any individual party but lost to the coalitions. Today, First Star had joined the center-left Democratic Party, a party which it would have opposed in the past. Struggling to fight against the establishment, the movement is failing to adequately provide for Italy and, in turn, is facing internal fractures. One issue is how First Star side-stepped the League, a hard-right party run by Matteo Salvini, and now faces political scrutiny. Part of the issue arises when the Five Star Movement is forced to work with the establishment, the very group it claims to fight against.

Recently, Five Star has held a great deal of power in Italy but lacks the ability to use it. Critics argue that Five Star is unable to effectively govern the state and that it has joined the Democratic Coalition out of desperation to prevent the collapse of the country (Horowitz, 2020). Several party members of Five Star have left and joined other groups such as the left coalition or Salvini's League. These departures came from M5S's failure to uphold their promises. The party originally condemned major infrastructure, industrial and energy projects, however, after gaining considerable power they have let these projects go through (Horowitz, 2020). 

Now, the Five Star Movement has become a less and less favored party in Italy. Opinion polls have shown a 19 point drop in the last two years. In 2020, only 15% of the population favor the party (Gilbert, 2020). Some of the biggest issues facing M5S are the threat of the opposition, Salvini's League, and the lack of organization. 

References

An introductory guide to the Italian political system. (2017, May 18). Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.thelocal.it/20190828/the-five-star-digital-voting-platform-that-could-threaten-a-government-deal-in-italy

Gilbert, M. (2020, October 09). Italy's 'Incoherent' Coalition Survived Local Elections. Now Can It Govern? Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29119/in-italy-elections-the-incoherent-coalition-held-its-own-now-can-it-govern

Horowitz, J. (2020, January 18). As Five Star Party Risks Implosion, Italy Fears the Fallout. Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/18/world/europe/italy-five-star.html

Newell, J. (2016, December 1). What is Italy's Five Star movement? Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://theconversation.com/what-is-italys-five-star-movement-69596

Conte says to be Italians' defence lawyer in govt of change - English. (2018, May 23). Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2018/05/23/conte-says-to-be-italians-defence-lawyer-in-govt-of-change_3294ff64-f175-4f2d-8323-c775d270645c.html

Venezuela’s Dim Future: A Democracy or Dictatorship?

Located in the northern coast of South America with a population of over 28 million, Venezuela, a country once seen so prosperous is now is in a political and economic mess.  One of the leading exporters of oil, poor policies as well as poor administration has led to an entire economic collapse.  Once Hugo Chavez became president in 1999, a new Constitution was put into a place in which he proposed an increase in presidential terms and presidential powers.  Before his untimely death in 2013, Chavez was able to name his predecessor in Nicholas Maduro and since then Venezuela’s democracy has taken a major hit as their political future is surely in doubt.

Figure 1. Venezuelans protest Maduro's regime (Rawlins, 2017).

 

President Maduro, the leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, has sent the country into the worst recession in their nation’s history as his only goal seems to be expanding his own power.  Under this authoritarian rule, the economy has collapsed, and shortages of basic necessities have plagued the country (Congressional Research Service, 2020).  The biggest issue came in 2019 when Nicholas Maduro illegally claimed the presidency as evidence proves of a rigged and fraudulent election where Maduro manipulated the electoral process towards his own benefit.  These illegal practices include voter suppression, manipulation of votes, and voter intimidation (State.Gov, 2020).  To add on to his illegitimacy, Maduro has also placed bans on the participation of major political parties and their candidates as well as postponing other national elections indefinitely.  As a result citizens are fleeing the state as they search for a new homes and opportunities as the crisis in Venezuela leaves them no more hope (The Heritage Foundation, 2020).  Poverty levels continue to rise and the manipulation of food for support by the government continue to damage their reputation.

Figure 2. Graph shows the increase in inflation levels since Maduro has been president. 

The United States and 57 other nations view Maduro as the illegitimate president of Venezuela and recognize Juan Guaido as the democratically elected president.  Guaido and most citizens seek along with international help, a peaceful transition of power but seems very unlikely as they seek other alternatives.  Although the Maduro regime has yet to give up power even as they face heavy sanctions from the United States puting pressure on Maduro’s circle as their county’s economy continues to tumble.  In a government that features major corruption, mishandles the country’s natural resources for their own expense, and seeks fraudulent elections proves Venezuela is no longer a democracy put a dictatorship under Maduro.

Figure 3. Interim President Juan Guaido speaks to supporters at an event in Caracas (Miller, 2019).

                                   References:

Congressional Research Service, Venezuela: Background and U.S. Relations. (2020, August 26). Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44841.pdf

The Heritage Foundation, The Troubling Situation in Venezuela. (2020). Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.heritage.org/americas/heritage-explains/the-troubling-situation-venezuela

U.S. Department of State, Venezuela: A Democratic Crisis - United States Department of State. (2020, October 08). Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.state.gov/a-democratic-crisis-in-venezuela

Global Refugee Crisis: Benefits of Increasing Settlement Pertaining to the Refugee Crisis

  Monday, October 26, 2020

Syrian refugee families at the refugee camp of Mohammara, Akkar province, northern Lebanon Photo: ARCHIVE/EPA/Nabil Mounzer

Displacement Rates at an All Time High

As of the past year, 2019, displacement rates have seen an all time high amongst former years. Currently 79.5 million people around the world have been forced to leave home due to circumstances like persecution, conflict, violence, or violations of human rights (UN Refugee Agency, N.D.). This staggering statistic is a result of a 11% increase (8.7 million people) in displacement from the previous year (UN Refugee Agency, N.D.). As a result of the global problem of human displacement, programs have been created to combat the rates of displacement. Moreover, groups like UNHCR, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, have been set in place since the time after World War II. The role of this group is to lead and coordinate international actions pertaining to the refugee problems worldwide. 

Figure 1: Number of displaced humans worldwide

(https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html)

Rates of Resettlement Amongst Refugees Declining 

In most recent years resettlement rates have been declining. There are currently 1.4 million refugees waiting to be resettled that have certain vulnerabilities that cannot be addressed in their host countries according to the United Nations (Ritchie, 2020). Today they are waiting in their host countries to be relocated to another country that will hopefully grant these refugees permanent resettlement. The number of refugees awaiting relocation is increasing but resettlement rates are decreasing because other countries with the power to grant them access and visas are hesitant to do so. Without being relocated these displaced humans face violations of human rights within the country they are attempting to flee. The media and various news sources portray refugees as a burden to carry. This is due to the economical detriment they believe they would be facing, by having places in the work field taken up by refugees and not of those that are already unemployed within the country itself. Instead of trying to combat the issue of resettlement for these refugees and look at the benefits of relocation, these powerful countries are trying to keep them within their host countries. 

Figure 2: The number and rate of resettled refugees 

(https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/download/?url=R1xq) 

Why Countries Should Accept Refugees?

Countries are extremely hesitant to grant access for refugees to come into their countries because refugees are often portrayed as a burden, whether it be an economic burden or a social burden. However, there are benefits that can be seen from the resettlement of refugees. There have been numerous studies that state refugees are more likely to be entrepreneurs and to have higher employment rates than the local citizens. The CGD, or Center for Global Development, has recently published a report providing ideas and new financial innovations that have the possibility of increasing resettlement rates and quality of life for the refugees as well (Ritchie, 2020). Ultimately by providing refugees the right to work, health, and education they are able to obtain a more progressive life within their new country. The faster refugees are incorporated within the new host country the faster they will be able to become productive members of society. Within the host country itself natives are often afraid that their jobs will be at risk due to the influx of immigrant workers. Overall this creates competition within the workers field ultimately boosting worker productivity in means of sustaining their jobs. Even with all this competition, natives are still at low risk for losing their jobs to refugees because they each carry very different skill sets and qualify for different types of jobs within the labor force. Refugees are much more likely to go into the field of entrepreneurship because they are more likely to take riskier jobs due to the fact that fleeing a country itself carries many risks and exhibits risk taking behaviors. In conclusion, by taking on more refugees on a horizontal scale across countries, more jobs will be obtained within the countries, hypothetically benefiting the country’s productivity in means of economy. Not only will this benefit the country, but the overall well being of the displaced humans globally. 

 References

Refugee Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.unrefugees.org/refugee-facts/statistics/

Ritchie, H. (2020, August 19). 1.4 Million Refugees Need Resettlement: Can Innovative Finance Help? Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.cgdev.org/blog/14-million-refugees-need-resettlement-can-innovative-finance-help

Bahar, D. (2018, June 20). Why accepting refugees is a win-win-win formula. Retrieved October 27, 2020, from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/06/19/refugees-are-a-win-win-win-formula-for-economic-development/

The Ongoing Insurgency in the Maghreb

 Location: The Maghreb region is located in Northern Africa, comprising Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, and Tunisia. It also includes some parts of Western Sahara that are considered Moroccan territories, as well as the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla.

Background: The insurgency in the Maghreb is an ongoing conflict that began with the start of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM. Before examining the AQIM as it is in its current state, it is important to realize it’s extensive background. The origins of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb extend back far, to an Islamic movement known as the Armed Islamic Group, or GIA. GIA vehemently was in opposition of the secular leadership of Algeria in the late 90s, resulting in an insurrection, which officially began in 1992, when the Algerian government, influenced by the French, canceled elections when it appeared as though Islamic leaders would be put into power. GIA implemented numerous tactics, especially tactics of intimidation, examples of this being beheadings and kidnappings. Numerous major leaders broke away from the GIA in the late 90s, forming a group known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, or GSPC, essentially making the Armed Islamic Group obsolete. On September 11, 2006, the GSPC announced an official union with Al Qaeda, and rebranded themselves as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM. 

Relevancy: The insurgency in the Maghreb is undoubtedly relevant as there have been over one thousand casualties in 2020 alone.

What’s happening now: The AQIM has a few goals, some still inline with the original beliefs of the GIA. They are certainly still upset with post Algerian civil war decisions, and they hate the French for backing and influencing Algeria in these decisions.. “According to West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center, AQIM’s objectives include ridding North Africa of Western influence; overthrowing governments deemed apostate, including those of Algeria, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia; and installing fundamentalist regimes based on sharia.” Clearly, their objectives are now more widespread and general than the original goals of the GIA and GSPC. They are now no longer focused on simply the overthrowing of the Algerian government, rather, their objective is to rid The Maghreb and numerous surrounding states and territories of western influence completely, instituting a regime change, implementing a government conforming to Sharia law. Furthermore, they are also attempting to take over certain territories controlled by state backed governmental actors.

Tactics of the AQIM: Tactically, the AQIM is vicious and unhinged. They employ the use of kidnappings, bombings, torture, as well as other general intimidation tactics within the community. Since the start of this conflict, there have been thousands of casualties. 

Sources:

Boeke, Sergei. “Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: Terrorism, Insurgency, or Organized Crime?” Taylor & Francis, 5 Aug. 2016, www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09592318.2016.1208280.

Boukhars, Anouar. “The Paradox of Modern Jihadi Insurgencies: The Case of the Sahel and Maghreb.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 15 July 2018, carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/15/paradox-of-modern-jihadi-insurgencies-case-of-sahel-and-maghreb-pub-76875.

Group, Crisis. “How the Islamic State Rose, Fell and Could Rise Again in the Maghreb.” Crisis Group, International Crisis Group, 15 Jan. 2018, www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/178-how-islamic-state-rose-fell-and-could-rise-again-maghreb.

Kustusch, Timothy. “AQIM's Funding Sources – Kidnapping, Ransom, and Drug Running by Gangster Jihadists.” 361Security, 28 Nov. 2012, www.361security.com/analysis/aqims-funding-sources-kidnapping-ransom-and-drug-running-by-gangster-jihadists.

Laub, Zachary, and Jonathan Masters. “Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.” Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 27 Mar. 2015, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb.

Mapping Militant Organizations.  Stanford University. Last Modified July 2018 <https://internal.fsi.stanford.edu/content/mmp-al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb>

“Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC).” The Investigative Project on Terrorism, www.investigativeproject.org/profile/143/salafist-group-for-preaching-and-combat-gspc.

Sawe, Benjamin Elisha. “Where Is The Maghreb Region In Africa?” WorldAtlas, WorldAtlas, 14 Feb. 2018, www.worldatlas.com/articles/where-is-the-maghreb-region-in-africa.html.

Sawe, Benjamin Elisha. “Which Countries Are Located In The Maghreb Region?” WorldAtlas, WorldAtlas, 7 Jan. 2019, www.worldatlas.com/articles/which-countries-are-located-in-the-maghreb-region.html. 

Police Brutality Protests in Nigeria

Nigeria has seen a lot of news coverage for its #EndSARS police protests. To give background on this issue, SARS stands for Special Anti-Robber Squad. The Nigerian government established in 1992 as a specialized police unit. It's developed to become more violent and abusive over the almost 30 years of its existence. The Nigerians have been protesting how much power SARS has, and most of these protests have been peaceful. In 2018 they were followed by the Nigerian government's claims to disassemble the unit. Nigerians don't believe the Nigerian government has made any real effort to reform SARS because there has been no reduction in the violence they perpetrate. However, it's only recently that SARS's nature has been brought into the public spotlight. This has been through a combination of recent events and the Nigerians' accessibility to social media.

On Tuesday, peaceful protests were being held in Lagos (an area of 20 million people). Eyewitness accounts state street lights in the area went out before Nigerian soldiers rolled up in trucks. What happened next became the event that brought attention to the situation as a whole. "As demonstrators began to sing Nigeria’s national anthem, 'Arise O’ Compatriots,' the soldiers fired live rounds at the unarmed protesters, leaving a number of people dead and flags stained with blood, and filling Nigerian social-media feeds with images that have prompted condemnation from around the world" (WSJ). The Nigerians' access to social media, while not nearly as widespread as it was in earlier years, irrefutably documented this slaughter for the world to see. It was a news source that couldn't be censored by the more powerful forces oppressing the people. Not only did this event spark social media attention, but it also sparked many more protests both across the country and worldwide.

The Nigerian police force faced a lot of pressure from international backlash. They announced they were dissolving SARS even though this announcement was ineffective as previous ones. In response, Nigerians started making more specific calls to action. CNN cites calls for psychological evaluations of police officers, for example. The country continues to exist in a state of unrest as of now.

My take on how this relates to comparative politics is where the US stands on all this. Nigeria is a very important military ally of the US army. The US considers all of this conflict bad for their public opinion, so they made a statement condemning the military's actions. I consider this an extremely ironic thing for them to do. The Black Lives Matter movement has been sweeping across the US over the past few months, which calls for an end to the US's own version of police brutality. In much the same manner as SARS has, the US police forces have violated human rights by murdering innocent people. Rather than reform its own police forces the US condemned Nigeria for not reforming its police forces. This makes me think the US doesn't truly care about justice in this instance; they only care about looking better than other countries. But I do find it interesting that two very different countries across the world are dealing with similar issues.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/africa/nigeria-sars-protests-police-explainer-intl/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/young-nigerians-came-to-protest-police-brutality-then-the-shooting-started-11603452187

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/endsars-nigeria-police-brutality-sars-lekki-protest/2020/10/22/27e31e0c-143d-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html

Russia, China, and Pakistan: Serial Human Rights Abusers Elected to the U.N. Human Rights Council

The Human Rights Council meets in March of 2017. Photo courtesy of Elena Okic.

On October 13, 2020, 15 newly elected members of the 2021 U.N. Human Rights Council were announced, including China, Russia, and Pakistan. These states hold regimes that regularly violate human rights protections and have evaded accountability for decades, raising concerns around their membership.

Figure 1. Slate for the 2021 HRC cycle: only the Asia-Pacific States had an active competition, leaving Saudi Arabia behind. (UN, 2020)

What is the Human Rights Council?

Formed in 1945 to advance the interests of international peace and security, the United Nations currently holds 193 members and is constructed of six major organs and many subordinate groups. The Human Rights Council, or the HRC, works to pass recommendations on international “situations of violations of human rights, including gross and systematic violations” (UN, 2020). States are elected for three-year terms and may hold two consecutive terms. The HRC’s method of regional elections means that only the Asia-Pacific region had a competitive slate, as seen in Figure 1- the rest are virtually assured seats.
The announcement of Russia, China, and Pakistan joining the Council was both shocking and anticipated, as all countries have been elected before, but continue to be among the top human rights offenders. Currently, 51% of the HRC members fail to meet the standards of a free democracy, and this new round of selections will push that number to 60% (Neuer, 2020).

The American Vacuum: A Consistent Call for Reform

To its advocates, the HRC is a place for states to consider human rights issues on the international stage. To its critics, it is a powerless organization that works under the watch of authoritarian power. The United States, although consistently demanding reforms over the past four decades, moved to the latter extreme in 2018 by removing themselves altogether. Nikki Haley, the Ambassador to the U.N. claimed that the council “ceases to be worthy of its name”, and that it in fact “damages the cause of human rights” (Ward, 2020). President George Bush previously abstained from membership for similar reasons during both of his terms. Membership under the Obama administration was important symbolic support for European nations, but brought unsatisfactory results, with Rep. Eliot Engel, the ranking Democratic member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs commenting that “the UN Human Rights Council has always been a problem” (Ward, 2020).

Figure 2. Comparing the scores of China, Russia, and Pakistan with their democratic fellow councilmember the United Kingdom. Original graphic with information collected from the Cato Institute’s Human Freedom Index (2019).

A Long History of Human Rights Abuses

Analyzed by the Cato Institute’s Human Freedom Index, the scores of these three members in comparison to the United Kingdom show a disturbing dissonance between the behaviors of council members and their membership in the HRC.

Pakistan

Ranked 140th out of 162 nations is Pakistan, with abysmal scores in the area of human rights that it has been elected to protect (Cato Institute, 2019). Freedom House’s Global Freedom Report generally concurs with this analysis, giving it a 38/100, and describing it as “Partly Free” (Freedom House, 2019). Authoritarian practices including voter intimidation and prescribed attacks on the media, religious minorities, women, and transgender individuals are at extremely high rates, with the “honor killings” of young females garnering recent international attention (Human Rights Watch, 2019). The Global Barometer of Gay Rights reveals the extent of anti-LGBTQ+ prejudice, allocating a mere 7% and a failing “grade” to Pakistan (GBGR, 2017).

China

Barely surpassing Pakistan’s ranking, China scores a 124/162 on the Human Freedom Index (Figure 2), and an egregiously low 10/100 “Not Free” ranking on Freedom House’s Global Freedom Index (Freedom House, 2019). Ethnic violence has reached new extremes, causing China to be one of only 11 countries cited for ethnic cleansing (Freedom House, 2019). Draconian bans on religious activities, the prosecution of labor rights and human rights advocates, and the scrutiny of non-governmental organizations, have been steadily increasing. Recently, the Xijiang detainment camps, in which Uyghur Muslims are forcibly kept, tortured, indoctrinated, sexually abused, and killed, have caused a major public outcry, which has been largely ignored in Beijing (Gan et al., 2020).

Russia

Internationally recognized as a corrupt nation, Russia scores a 114/162 on the Human Freedom Index (Figure 2), and a 20/100 “Not Free” ranking on the Global Freedom Index (Freedom House, 2019). Russia has recently been most recently cited for violence against the media and political opposition groups. The murder of activist Yelena Girgoryeva and the attempted assassination of Alexei Navalny are two in a string of disturbing events targeting Putin’s opponents. Similarly to Pakistan, elections are marred with heavy intimidation, and military officials regularly torture and kill persons in custody. Of even more concern are the deliberate attacks on non-governmental organizations and human rights advocates, fundamentally clashing with their own role as human rights defenders.

Globalization and its Complications

An obvious commonality of these states is their unofficial practice of authoritarian government, promoting coercion-based oppressive power behind a veil of democracy that often breaches the protection of human rights (O’Neil). The UN General Assembly’s Resolution 60/251, responsible for the creation of the Human Rights Council states that elections should “take into account the contribution of candidates to the promotion and protection of human rights,” a notion that seems to suggest basic requirements (UN, 2020). The fundamental dissonance between the goals of this council and its representation has highlighted the need for reforms, including the promotion of competitive regional slates, and the disqualification of rule-breaking nations.
However, any movement from the current deadlock is not likely, as Western powers are bound to these three nations by a web of economic interests, and the true enforcement capabilities of the United Nations are limited. Peggy Hicks, the global advocacy director at Human Rights Watch notes that these countries are “powerful states that exercise their power in a way to influence others at the council, as well as make it very hard to engage on issues that they don’t want reviewed” (Yu, 2013). Complicated globalized loans and investments give nations de facto impunity, advancing a vision of a world without accountability.

A Call for Reform

As an international body formed with the intention of maintaining basic standards of peace and protection, the clash between ideology and reality is palpable in the Human Rights Council and begs for a solution. Although a simple reform of standardized qualifications and competitive elections may seem obvious to Western powers, the grip of globalized interdependence makes movement, at least for now, wholly improbable.

References

Main Articles:

Ward, A. (2020, October 14). Russia and China will join the UN Human Rights Council. The US should too. Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.vox.com/21515856/china-russia-un-human-rights-council-usa-trump

Yu, A. (2013, November 13). Does China Deserve A Seat On The U.N. Human Rights Council? Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/11/12/244853036/does-china-deserve-a-seat-on-the-u-n-human-rights-council



F&M Global Barometers. (2017). Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.fandmglobalbarometers.org/

Gan, N., Westcott, B., Griffiths, J. (2020, June 19). What's been happening in Xinjiang, home to 11 million Uyghurs? Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/asia/xinjiang-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

Global Freedom Scores. (2019). Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores

Human Freedom Index. (2020, September 10). Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.cato.org/human-freedom-index-new

Nichols, M. (2020, October 13). China, Russia elected to U.N. rights council; Saudi Arabia fails. Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-rights-idUSKBN26Y2YE

Okic, E. (2017, March 1). Human Rights Council- 34th Session [Digital image]. Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.universal-rights.org/blog/relationship-human-rights-council-third-committee-ga-measuring-coherence/

O'Neil, P. H. (2018). States. In Essentials of Comparative Politics (pp. 30-61). New York, New York: W. W. Norton.

Pakistan 2019 Human Rights Report. (2019). Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PAKISTAN-2019-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf

UN: Deny Rights Council Seats to Major Violators. (2020, October 22). Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/10/08/un-deny-rights-council-seats-major-violators

United Nations, main body, main organs, General Assembly. (2020). Retrieved October 25, 2020, from https://www.un.org/en/ga/75/meetings/elections/hrc.shtml

Conflict and Intervention in the Region of Nagorno-Karabakh

There seems to be no end to the conflict in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan; however, to understand the conflict, its origin should be considered. Post the Soviet Union's dismantling is when this conflict truly began as there was a debate between Armenia and Azerbaijan as to who would take control of this region. The reason for the debate is that despite the area in question being under Azerbaijan territory, it was home to a vast majority of native Armenians who did not want to become a part of Azerbaijan.


(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/19/is-russia-reduced-to-a-secondary-role-in-nagorno-karabakh)

However, over the years, Azerbaijan has grown its military power and strength to the point where it may have a “comparative advantage in relation to Armenia”. This is important because it shows Azerbaijan’s willingness to have a full-scale war with Armenia and since there has been a cutting of negotiations, it is wondered when this conflict may end. Though in previous stir-ups in the region Russia has been that intermediary due to an alliance it has with Armenia. However, this time Russia has not requested the fighting to cease.

Furthermore, new information is turning other heads around the world for possible intervention as humanitarian law is being violated within the conflict. Innocent civilians are being killed, and illegal ‘Cluster Bombs’ have been used in cities on civilians. Human rights violations show again how necessary it may be for other nationals to involve themselves in this conflict so peace can prevail. It is no longer just a dispute over a region between two governments but a conflict that has affected the lives of the innocent civilians living within the regions.


(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/19/is-russia-reduced-to-a-secondary-role-in-nagorno-karabakh)

The only foreign power evident in the conflict is Turkey. They have been directly involved but also have begun to bring in mercenaries from outside the region to aid Azerbaijan in fighting the conflict. Despite it being clear that there are direct violations of human rights in the region, if more foreign powers become militarily involved, another endless proxy war could begin. This is why foreign interference should be more so focused on a diplomatic solution to this issue as opposed to military interference. While there is scheduled to be a meeting in Washington today between the foreign diplomats it is still unclear as to what may bring these two conflicting sides to peace, but the foreign powers avoiding interference has clearly not helped it end or brought resolution to the question of the region's sovereignty.




Armenia/Azerbaijan: Civilians must be protected from use of banned cluster bombs. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/10/armenia-azerbaijan-civilians-must-be-protected-from-use-of-banned-cluster-bombs/

Mirovalev, M. (2020, October 19). What role is Russia playing in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/19/is-russia-reduced-to-a-secondary-role-in-nagorno-karabakh

Nagorno-Karabakh: What's at Stake in the Conflict Between Armenia & Azerbaijan? (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.democracynow.org/2020/10/22/nagorno_karabakh_conflict_armenia_azerbaijan

Tom O'Connor On 10/20/20 at 6:22 PM EDT. (2020, October 20). Armenia wants Iran's help, Azerbaijan says US, Russia, France not doing enough to end conflict. Retrieved from https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-iran-help-azerbaijan-us-russia-france-not-doing-enough-1540734

Stateness and Democracy in East Asia

There are many studies focusing on the relationship between culture, class, and economy and democracy in East Asia. However, most of them neglect to evaluate the significance of stateness in democratization. A strong stateness includes effective, non-corrupt administration, legitimate law enforcement, and a sense of attachment among citizens. Recent scholars on stateness and democracy are divided into two groups. Some believe that a strong existing state is the prerequisite of democratization. On the other hand, some disagree by claiming that “positive political development is more likely when effective state institutions have been put in place prior to democratization,” but democratization can be achieved without a well functioning state. As the argument continues, attention has been drawn to several demoratic states in East Asia.

The stronger states facilitate democratization argument collapses when we examine the democratization in East Timor, one of the most fragile states in East Asia. East Timor  experienced one of the most extensive processes of post-conflict peacebuilding undertaken by the United Nations since 1999. One of the aims of post-conflict peacebuilding was to establish democracy and a market economy. When the UN started rebuilding the country, there were no state or previous regimes. The weak bureaucracy led to ineffective rule of law, making East Timor extremely fragile. However, with the assistance of the UN, East Timor became one of the most democratic states in East Asia with multi-party politics and public elections. Scholars even observed high voter turnouts and a degree of political competition between parties in this unstable state.

The case of Indonesia, however, shows that democratization could be challenging in a weak state. Indonesia attempted to democratize after the Second World War but failed to become one until 1999. Power sharing and democratic elections enabled Indonesia’s elites to cooperate to avoid potential violence after gaining independence from the Dutch. Nevertheless, the new established country faced many problems. Without an effective core of state institutions, democracy in Indonesia eventually became not sustainable. Although Indonesia was politically inclusive, democratization in the case of a fragile state hindered the creation of an effective bureaucracy and contributed to the breakdown of order. 

The case of East Timor shows that a fragile state is still able to achieve democratization. In contrast, the failure of democracy in Indonesia during the 1950s reminded us of the challenge democratization faced in an unstable state. Although a strong stateness is not essential to democracy, it eliminates threats to democratization, thus fostering political development. 

Bibliography

Croissant, Aurel, and Olli Hellmann. Stateness and Democracy in East Asia. New York, 

New York: Cambridge University Press, 2020. 

Ludvigsson , Karin. “Democracy in Timor-Leste,” August 2008. 

The Indonesian LGBT+ Community's Struggle for Basic Human Rights

The LGBT+ community in Indonesia has recently faced a plethora of discriminatory problems.  Though homosexuality is not illegal under Indonesian law, authorities have done much more to hinder the advancement of LGBT human rights than to help.  To make matters worse, Indonesia is facing the possibility of new legislation that would further inhibit the rights of the LGBT+ community.  The government has faced a large amount of backlash in the form of protests, however, the Muslim-majority country does not look as if it is ready for change.  

There have been numerous threats against the LGBT community that are deserving of an investigation by the Indonesian government.  Recently, in the capital city Jakarta, a police raid on a private gathering of 56 men led to the arrest of 9 people.  According to Human Rights Watch, police forcibly broke up a party at a hotel, accusing people of the crime of "facilitating obscene acts".  Jakarta has been the setting for the increasing number of unlawful apprehension of LGBT people.  Authorities have been using a 2008 pornography law in order to convict people on the basis of their sexual orientation, relating same-sex relations to the distribution of acts of obscenity.  Likewise, in the Indonesian military, security forces have vowed to purge LGBT people from their ranks.  Major General Burhan Dahlan has admitted to filing 20 reports to the court regarding same-sex relations between soldiers.  Additionally, this outing of members of the LGBT+ community has spread to the Indonesian police force.  Government officials have not done anything in response to the removal of LGBT officers from the police or military.

Men sit in the back of a vehicle in at Jakarta police headquarters after a police raid

The current criminal code in Indonesia is called the KUHP, an outdated code put into place during the Dutch colonial era in 1918. To this day, the country has not implemented any changes to the law.  Late last year, amendments to the KUHP were proposed, however, these proposed amendments don't do much to help.  The proposed legislation, or the RKUHP, was met by widespread protests.  Though the intention of the changes in the criminal code is unclear, the new law would criminalize more conduct than the existing KUPH.  The new legislation raises concerns about many issues such as adultery, blasphemy, abortion, and the rights of women, people of the LGBT+ community, and religious minorities. In response to the protest, Indonesian President Joko Windodo postponed the implementation of the new provisions.

Anti-LGBT protesters march in support of new legislation in Banda Aceh

Earlier this year, lawmakers in Indonesia introduced a bill known as the "Family Resistance Bill".  According to ABC News, this bill would establish government-sanctioned rehabilitation centers with the purpose of curing LGBT people of their gender identities or sexual orientations.  Furthermore, family members would be encouraged to report those who refused to enter the rehabilitation centers.  Organizations such as the human rights group OutRight Action International have formed in opposition to the bill, seeing it as another attempt by Indonesian lawmakers to criminalize homosexuality.  For now, advocates of the LGBT+ community are doing whatever they can to combat the recent push for anti-LGBT legislation.

Students protest against revisions of the criminal code in front of the Indonesian House of Representatives

The current situation for members of the LGBT+ community in Indonesia is far from ideal, but the increasing number of protest throughout the country, as well as the increasing opposition to new discriminatory legislation reveals a glimps of hope for some.  For a country that possesses a grade of only 19% on the F&M Global Barometers scale for gay rights, there seems to be a lot of support for the LGBT+ community.  Protest have been widespread since the end of 2019 and have continued to raise support and awareness of the lack of basic rights for LGBT people, prohibiting President Joko Windodo from supporting any new legislation.  Though the implementation of the RKUHP is still likely, officials hope to change many revisions of the bill before it becomes law.  The young Indonesian community continues to stand up to outdated laws and resists the push for further discrimination of LGBT people.

Sources:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/07/indonesia-investigate-police-raid-gay-party

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wx8e94/indonesian-security-forces-vow-to-purge-lgbt-people-from-their-ranks

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/indonesia-proposes-bill-force-lgbtq-people-rehabilitation-n1146861

https://www.mondaq.com/white-collar-crime-anti-corruption-fraud/901430/rkuhp-what-it-means-for-criminal-justice-in-indonesia

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/27/its-dangerous-sinaga-case-fuels-lgbt-backlash-in-indonesia

https://sea.mashable.com/social-good/6419/heres-the-rundown-on-whats-really-going-on-with-the-protests-in-indonesia

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thousands-rally-in-indonesia-amid-controversial-criminal-code-changes