The World's Approach to Avoid the Global Climate "Catastrophe"

 

The UN General Assembly Floor via https://peacekeeping.un.org/

    Currently, the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly is taking place. It is held annually at the United Nations Headquarters in NYC. This is where all United Nations members take place in aid of making policies to help the world. The two biggest discussions during the assembly this year are the COVID-19 pandemic and the Earth’s state with climate change. These two issues affect every country in the world, hence why it has been such a prevalent issue among world leaders. Along with the UN General Assembly, another world meeting takes place at the beginning of November for the 26th time, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP26 for short. Here the world leaders focus strictly on climate change and work together to find solutions toward helping the Earth recover from the damage already done. For reference, the Paris Agreement came into effect during COP21 in 2016.

It’s no surprise that the world has gone through many natural disasters lately, especially in the United States where there were more Hurricanes, Wildfires, etc, than we’re used to seeing. Climate change could be the blame for this, which directly affects the state of a country entirely. Natural disasters destroy resources, make countries pour the resources that they have into recovery, and the economy gets hurt from natural disasters for a variety of reasons. It has also been discovered that the world is warming at a faster rate than initially expected, and scientists believe that it is crucial to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half this decade. The world needs to come to agreements to slow and/or avoid Climate Change, otherwise, the world will start to fall apart gradually, and many more disasters will occur harming the human race and our daily lives.

The Official Poster for COP26 via https://www.bbc.co.uk/

    With that being said, there are plenty of goals in mind for the upcoming COP26. A member of the British Parliament, Alok Sharma, mentioned the goals he had for the event (via CNN):

• Keeping the goal of "1.5 alive," a target that some fossil fuel-producing countries have resisted, at least in terms of strengthening language around it in any agreement.

• Putting an end date on the use of "unabated" coal, which leaves open the possibility to keep using some coal, as long as the majority of greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel are captured, preventing them to enter the atmosphere. Some scientists and activists groups have said all coal should be consigned to history.

• Providing $100 billion of annual climate financing, which wealthy nations agreed to, to help developing countries reduce fossil fuel emissions and adapt to the impacts of the crisis.

• Making all new car sales zero emissions within 14-19 years.

• Ending deforestation by the end of the decade, as forests play a crucial role in removing carbon from the atmosphere.

• Reducing emissions from methane, a potent gas with more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide.

These goals will take time to make sure they’re put into place, but if the world is able to successfully put these goals into action, the Earth will be in a much better place for its future. Once again, it's crucial for the world to be in agreement. The Paris Agreement was a great first step, but it won't be enough, and it still relies on each country following the agreement strictly.

The world is in a difficult spot right now dealing with both the COVID-19 Pandemic, along with worsening Climate change, combined with any issues each country is dealing with. This may lead to some delays in getting started, which is far from ideal, however, what is most important right now is the world creates a plan for Every country to follow. It's going to take every country to overcome the hole the world has dug itself into, but it isn't too late to slowly get back out of it. If all goes well during the rest of the UN Assembly and the upcoming COP26, the world should be in a much better place than it has been in the past.

References:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/23/world/what-is-cop26-glasgow-un-climate-conference-cmd-intl/index.html

https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/role-of-general-assembly

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/51372486

https://www.un.org/en/ga/

https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement

France's Political Future: The 2022 Presidential Election

      France is heading towards a presidential election in 2022 in which multiple conservative candidates are challenging incumbent president, Emmanuel Macron. Macron, while he hasn’t announced his candidacy, is expected to run for another term. Macron has maintained his position as a centrist throughout his term and is the leader of his party, La République En Marche, also referred to as En Marche. His party has been identified as liberal but the country has faced ideological shifts that feature increasingly anti-liberal sentiments. In addition to that, there is also criticism for Macron, within the left-leaning sectors, that he has not been as progressive as designated required for issues relating to Islamic xenophobia, trade unions, and the famous Yellow Vest Protests. Macron’s economic policies have also not been popular with French citizens, largely due to being part of major reforms.

His main opponent currently would be Marine Le Pen, a far-right candidate, who was his frontrunning opponent during the last presidential election. Additional political players include a grassroots group called the Rencontre des Justices, the Socialist party, and environmentalist groups who don’t currently hold much sway in the French political system. The focus and gravity of this race, therefore, is placed on deciding the future political attitude of the country, which could be left-leaning with Macron, or conservative with Le Pen and the other five conservative candidates who have declared. Those other five candidates may have a shot at being one of the front-running candidates, considering that France is also experiencing voter abstention. Political analysts have suggested that the absention implies the  public does not seem satisfied with an election that will feature a rematch between Macron and Le Pen, but this could also be tied in with Covid 19 related difficulties. 

       

The capacity and logistics of the 2022 Presidential election is expected to run more smoothly, excluding the politics. However, the political organization that is occurring, shows that there is a strong sense of disillusionment with Macron, and conservatives will be capitalizing on that divide between leftists. Between the Rencontre des Justices, which is also left-leaning and liberal, and the Socialist Party, who are actively working to gain support, the rallying and defense for Macron’s presidency simply is not there yet. The concept of a conservative lead in France poses some concerns, especially considering that under the centrist policy of Macron, islamic separatism policies have been promoted as a solution. These policies have all been controversial as they are discriminatory in that they are directly referencing the Islamic faith and also an attempt to limit the visibility of Islamic peoples. French conservatism, however, is also connected with nationalist sentiments, which could prove to be particularly persecuting or intolerant of the Islamic faith. The conservative economic policy is likely to be favorable to voters, considering it would feature less reform, stricter immigration policy, and company support for domestic businesses. However, during Macron's term, strong political activism and agency has been displayed in France, often leading to concessions from the government. Such activism is not likely to stop under a conservative France, but for some, its prospects may be particularly impactful and conflicting.

Tunisia's President is Done with the Constitution

This past Wednesday, Tunisias president, Kais Saied, announced that he will not follow the countrys Constitution and rule by decree. All of this is because President Saied is planning on changing the political system of the country. This all comes after July 25th. On this day, President Saied fired the prime minister, suspended parliament, and assumed executive authority. His opposition took this as a coup and instantly opposed this idea by the president. The president that his idea for theis reaction is because the country is under an "immediate threat." Recently, he openly said that he plans on keeping parliament frozen for another thirty days. He cites that his actions do follow the rules because of Tunisias post-revolution constitution. This created backlash in the public with some people supporting him because they feel they're life has gotten worse since their former authoritarian government fell. Others feel that they wanted to keep parliamentary democracy in place.

Most people in the government are rejecting Saied's plan of rewriting the constitution. They believe that this will not give their citizens more rights and they won't be as free, but instead, will be living in an authoritarian state in which the government controls their lives. Most people aren't in favor of Saied's decision because of the former leader of the country, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. He was the former dictator of Tunisia who ruled the. country for a lengthy amount of time. After his fall as dictator, Tunisia was paraded around the world for their peaceful transition to become a parliamentary democracy. These people in the government see in Saied the same as what they saw in Ben Ali.

Saieds actions basically give the president unlimited power. This means that slowly, but surely, President Saied is becoming a dictator and the country is leading to authoritarian state. This will now allow him to admit any bill into effect that he wants, appoint the cabinet by himself, and set Tunisia's policy direction.

His ways don't only affect the citizens of this country, but also the members of the previous parliament. After President Saied froze parliament, the members we're left without their job. This meant that the members of parliament will not be able to receive their salary and they are not protected with immunity when faced with prosecution.

 

President Saied plans on creating a committee that will help him rewrite the Constitution and make the appropriate amendments where he believes they need to be. Saied has already come out and said that he only plans on keeping the preamble of the existing Constitution and any part that does not contradict his powers, while changing mostly the rest.

Watching how this whole situation turns out is going to be quite interesting. It makes one wonder, will Saied keep Tunisia as a democratic parliament, or will he turn the country into an authoritarian state. One will have to wait and see.

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/22/tunisias-president-to-ignore-parts-of-the-constitution-and-rule-by-decree

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20210920-tunisian-president-saied-promises-to-name-a-pm-but-maintains-emergency-measures

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/tunisia-saied-power-grab-west-silent-what-follows-significant

What the F--- is going on in Sudan?

Well, short answer… a lot. To describe Sudan as having a tumultuous relationship with power and democracy would be an understatement. Since the nation’s origins under the Pharaonic period, control over the territory has switched hands like a proverbial Bop-it at a sleepover. In fact, as of this past week, another attempt to flip control of the African nation took place, yet failed. What government officials are calling the latest in a long line of coup attempts transpired this past Tuesday in the heart of the Sudanese city of Omdurman. This time, the Bop-it of power found itself nearly in the hands of a group of militant armed corps, individuals ranging from grunts to high-ranked officers. The standing state-backed military, however, assured that the “pass it” mode was off, quickly arresting the suspected insurrectionists. While reports vary due to the sanctions of anonymity placed by the government and state-owned media, it is believed that upwards of twenty-plus former militant operatives were arrested by midday Tuesday.

Now, in the aftermath of the attempted revolution, the most crucial questions this budding democracy has to face are “why?” and “what next?”. 

To answer these quandaries, there must first be a fundamental understanding of where the nation resided politically leading up to this point. Returning to the Bop-it example (unfortunately), the gambit was primarily held by the former head of state Omar al-Bashir, from 1989 to 2019. In the thirty years of his reign, which he fittingly enough gained control of in a coup, al-Bashir was anything but a fair and diplomatic ruler. His time in control is marked by his penchant for the mass murder, rape, and mutilation of those he deemed to be his “domestic enemies” (Dafur), including the innocent of all ages. Also noteworthy is the inclusion and importance of religiosity in his regime, primarily settling his government around Sharia law, being punitively strict under the guise of divine intention. However, in 2019, he himself was deposed by a coup d’etat, wherein the military revolted after months of mass public outcry. This action resulted in the arrest of al-Bashir and all of his associate cabinet members, passing the Bop-it to a new collection of government officials, this time focused on secular democracy.

The “why?” of the actions of this past Tuesday can be seen by looking at the country’s recent history, as the perpetrators of the coup were identified as strict subscribers to Omar al-Bashir’s form of government. During Sudan’s slow and daunting transition to a joint democratic state, there is an expected that it will be peppered with instability and radical notions, such as by those who took part in the coup. Yet, as easy as it is to answer the “why?”, coming to terms with what is next is ever so more difficult. There stands to be more attacks and pushback from those who were fond of the traditional and conservative style of the Islamic state. However, with firm U.S. and international backing in the ideals of the new direction of the nation, it seems that, though weakened by the attempted insurrections, Sudan will only grow further in its democratic endeavor. Who knows, maybe one day soon the Bop-it will come to rest at a junction for all Sudanese to use equally. But for now, it sits awkwardly in limbo, yearning for a new and fair owner.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/sudanese-officials-coup-attempt-failed-army-control-80140850 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/21/africa/sudan-failed-coup-attempt-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-58638150 

   

The Taliban is Seeking to Address UN General Assembly

             In August, the Taliban seized control over Afghanistan. Weeks before the U.S. could fully withdraw from the nation after decades of war, the group managed to capture major cities in a matter of days. Following this complete takeover, Afghan civilians rushed to flee the country, many of which risked and even lost their lives from doing so. Seeing this situation unfold, many scholars and outsiders have asked the question of “what will happen to Afghanistan?”

Afghan civilians crowding a plane in an effort of fleeing their country. 

        On September 20, 2021, a letter written by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Muttaqi made the request to U.N Secretary-General Guterres to allow them to address the U.N. world body. This request was made due to the Taliban’s inability to recognize their former Afghanistan U.N. Ambassador chair, Ghulam Isaczai, as a valid spokesperson for the country, since he was ousted by the Taliban on August 15. In replacement of Isaczai, the Taliban has nominated a Doha-based spokesman, Suhail Shaheen, to become the U.N Ambassador for the country.

            Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban nominatated spokesperson for the U.N. Ambassador Chair

        This rival request was confirmed to have been sent to the nine-member credentials committee to be processed. Yet, the committee is unlikely to meet upon this complication before Monday, which is the day that marks the end of the General Assembly. Until a solid decision is made, Isaczai will remain as the Ambassador chair for Afghanistan. In this scenario, it is marked as highly unlikely to go in favor of the Taliban since this request was made on such short notice.

        The Taliban is seeking to address the U.N. in order to gain international support and recognition in hopes of rebuilding its war-torn country. This poses a great dilemma due to the fact that the current makeup of the Taliban’s leadership is on the U.N.’s “blacklist” for international terrorism and funding of terrorism. Yet, some members can see the Taliban's recognition as an opportunity to urge this new ruling body in the guarantee of human rights, especially for women, who were prohibited from education and work in their previous rule.

        Signs are pointing to further confusion upon this problem. Questions remain as to "What will happen if the Taliban is globally recognized as a governing authority of Afghanistan? And if so, will a change be made in their radical ideas/beliefs?" Thus far, the international opinion of the Taliban organization is in objection to its oppressive rule. 

Sources:

https://globalnews.ca/news/8211347/afghanistan-taliban-united-nations/

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-taliban-names-afghan-un-envoy-asks-speak-world-leaders-2021-09-21/

https://apnews.com/article/taliban-takeover-afghanistan-what-to-know-1a74c9cd866866f196c478aba21b60b6

Germany's Federal Election, Kurzgesagt

        After 16 years as Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel is finally retiring, allowing for the position of Head of Government to be decided upon in the next coming months in the federal election. The official election day is September 26th, 2021, during which eligible electors cast their votes for their constituencies’ representatives, as well as which party they most align with, to occupy the Bundestag (literally meaning “Federal Diet”), Germany’s equivalent of the House of Representatives. Yet, even after the ballots are counted, we still wouldn’t know what the new government is going to look like, let alone the face of the new Chancellor. To understand why, let’s examine Germany’s electoral system, how it differs from that of the US and in turn, shapes German politics.

Germany's leading candidates, from left to right: Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin

Laschet (CDU), Annalena Baerbock (Green)

        While the center of attention of American politics every 4 years is the Presidential election, for Germany, it’s the federal parliamentary election that is most important, since the federal president is a mostly ceremonial position. There are 299 electoral districts, with approximately 250 thousand residents each. Each elector has two votes on the ballot. The first vote is the constituency vote, which decides who will represent the district using the first-past-the-post, winner-takes-all method. These account for half of the base number of seats in the Bundestag, the other half is filled according to the party list, determined by the second vote. This is where it gets a bit more complicated. For folks who prefer a particular candidate to represent their constituency, but identify more strongly with a different party’s policies, Germany’s electoral system makes choosing both possible using the mixed-member proportional representation system. After the ballots are counted, the percentage each party gets for the second vote corresponds to the percentage of seats they have in the Bundestag, so the composition of the Bundestag resembles the actual popularity of the parties among electors. However, candidates in the first vote have party-affiliations too, how do we keep it proportional if one party happens to have a lot of district representatives? Simply, add more seats. The number 598 is the floor, not the ceiling. In fact, the 19th and current Bundestag has a total of 709 members, making it the largest one to date. These additional seats, called overhang seats, ensure the diversity of viewpoints in the Bundestag, and allow for proportional representation of the public opinion.

        But how much diversity are we speaking of here? How many parties actually enter the Bundestag? Both Germany and America have multi-party systems, yet Americans have mostly never known of another major party besides the traditional opponents, red and blue. Is Germany any different?

        Germany has 6 major parties.

 

(Source: Deutscher Bundestag)

        Here, we define “major” as having at least 5% in the second vote, which is the condition for a party to be represented in the Bundestag. This rule came about to prevent the disastrous situation of the Bundestag being too fragmented due to an excess of political parties, which had occurred during the Weimar Republic, when 17 parties occupied the parliament. In 2021, Germany now has 47 parties on its election ballot, so suffice it to say it was a prudent decision. But even so, isn’t six still too much? This is where the coalition government comes into play. To create a majority government in case no party has a majority of parliament members (which occurs frequently), parties would enter negotiations after the election to form a coalition for the next 4 years. Allying parties combine seats and become the new coalition government once their number of seats exceeds 50%. For example, Angela Merkel’s fourth cabinet was supported by the Union, or the alliance between Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), and the Social Democratic Party (SDP). This electoral term, the first one of the post-Merkel era, the popular vote is more spread out than ever, according to recent polls, which gives way to many interesting combinations:

 

(Source: Wahlrecht.de)

        This new coalition government then votes, without debate, on a chancellor, who is appointed by the president of Germany. All of this is to suggest that once the elections are finished, there is still a lengthy period before the new administration takes form, mostly due to the coalition negotiations. Sometimes, it could take up to six months, as had happened after the 2017 election. Yet however arduous the path to mutual ground is, the German electoral system guarantees it will be found. As no singular party could come into power without being the majority, parliament members must heavily rely on the spirit of cooperation and concession to get the job done. This is also one of the defining features of German politics, as opposed to the increasingly polarized American politics. Instead of relentlessly attacking and antagonizing the opposition, German politicians seek and speak of concessions and mutual agreement with other parties, not just the other. Angela Merkel was certainly an example: despite being a member of Union, which is the center-right party of Germany, she yielded to the SPD, the center-left party, on such important issues as EU policy and labor-market matters. This created a coalition government that, despite having the conservative Union as the most populated parliament group, had the most social democratic policies in recent history. Combine this with the fact that German citizens have more viable options to vote on (the Green party is actually a mainstay of mainstream politics here, thanks to the mixed-member proportional representation system) and we can see that the example of Germany’s electoral system certainly gives Americans some food for thought.

Sources:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/13/german-election-poll-tracker-who-will-be-the-next-chancellor
http://math-www.uni-paderborn.de/~axel/us-d.html#toc
https://www.grin.com/document/386600
https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-process/a-37805756
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/germany-grand-coalition-risks-by-helmut-k--anheier-2018-03
https://postcourier.com.pg/coalition-governments-advantages-unpopular-traits/
https://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/bd/annex/bdy/bdy_de/mobile_browsing/onePag
https://www.bundestag.de/

Haitian Migrants Refuse to Return Home

    The White House has recently faced a plethora of immigration struggles. On Monday, September 20, videos and images surfaced on social media depicting the United States Border Patrol’s brutal treatment of Haitian migrants. One of the migrants deported back to Haiti claimed they spent five days in Texas prison, given aluminum foils to sleep on. With the increasing influx of migrants, the Biden Administration has been pushing forward policies to relieve the overflow of migrants. Officials of Haiti’s national office of migration declared that teams are ready to receive and process migrants that are deported by force. However, the problem is that these asylum seekers do not accept living or returning to Haiti.

Photo: Paul Ratje via Getty Images

So, why are these people refusing to go back to their home country?

    On September 19, 2021, the first wave of forced migrants were deported from a makeshift camp in Del Rio, Texas to Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti. An overflow in the immigration system posed challenges for the Biden Administration. Many of these refugees fled Haiti since the devastating earthquake in 2010, attempting to rebuild a life in South America. However, these Haitian migrants recently faced immense economic hardship and racial discrimination in countries like Chile and Brazil. Countless migrants traversed into the United States border in the hope of an easier crossing under the Biden administration. They refuse to return to a country they cannot recognize, nor do they have the optimism in building a life for a family. Unfortunately, these refugees have turned away forcibly due to the struggling crisis of the United States’ immigration system.

Photo: Jordan Vonderhaar via Getty Images

The issues of Haiti do not end there. Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haitians anticipate low expectations for the government. Many Haitians are accustomed to political turmoil and perceive the power struggle as the least of their concern. As Luckner Augustin, a handy-man living in Port-au-Prince, stated, "[Politicians] only care about stuffing their pockets with money." People of Haiti are exasperated over the infighting of political elites whose policies have minor significance on their lives. 

On August 14, 2021, another 7.2 magnitude earthquake concurrent with flash floods struck southwest Haiti, leaving more than 650,000 people displaced, and roughly 2,200 people dead. Although the United Nations and a myriad of international aid groups provided relief, the effort is all but microscopic. The country is facing daily gang violence, shortage of power, water, and fuel. The constant concern for most Haitians is not the government, but simply basic survival and security. As leaders of Haiti come and go with little change in public policy, with the addition of increasing disasters that make the country unstable, deported Haitians are agitated and lost.

Photo: Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times

    These displaced Haitians are left with no options nor opportunities, many abandoning their life in South America in search of a better future. As we see Haiti and many developing countries facing turmoil, we cannot escape the thought that these are a microcosm of the events to come for the rest of the world very shortly. If we could somehow solve Haiti’s multifarious problems, we might discover a path through those more widespread challenges across the globe.



Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/world/americas/us-haitian-deportation.html

https://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/2021-haiti-earthquake-situation-report-1-september-1-2021

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/world/americas/haiti-president-politics.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/20/psaki-whipping-haitian-migrants-horrific-513106

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/world/americas/haiti-quake-aid.html

Russia’s Rigged Election and Restrictions on Human Rights

 The results are out from Russia’s three day long election and unfortunately no surprises have been sprung upon the citizens who are sentenced to another term of Putin’s rule. Unlike elections before, there is yet again large suspicions of the elections legitimacy being raised. 

There have been multiple reports of ballot boxes being stuffed, forced elections, and most likely major miscalculations of online ballots. According to the New York Times, “Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of independent R. Politik political consultancy, said Russia’s parliamentary vote was not really an election but “the administering of a planned result.” Eight parties, including Kremlin-friendly factions and several independents, were expected to get seats.” On a few separate occasions, the electoral commission CCTV cameras caught incidents of people shoving hundreds of papers to throw off the actual numbers of the election. Although Russia's Election commission has stated that all fraudulent votes have been annulled, critics continue to argue otherwise insisting that there must be at least thousands of different occasions in which unlawful voting has occurred, “A U.S. State Department statement said the conditions surrounding the election were “not conducive to free and fair proceedings.” It criticized both the “widespread efforts to marginalize independent political figures” before the vote and use of laws to restrict people’s political rights”. 

Another huge concern of the citizens is the new online election ballots, which Putin’s administration implemented for several areas in an attempt to supply safer voting options during the pandemic. Although it should have been a fairly simple process of counting these ballots through computer programming systems, there was quite a delay in getting the online polls out. The online ballots also have few ways to prove their legitimacy and have an inconsistent rate in which their votes are leaning towards Putin.

There have been several anonymous polls taken over the past few years analyzing the Kremlin party and Putin's presidency. The most recent of the polls concluded that there was only a 30% percent approval rate of his terms, and yet somehow he won with a 50% vote, over 10% higher than his election of 2016. By winning with a 50% majority vote, this also means that he won with a supermajority, allowing for him to change the constitution, dominate committees, and ram through laws with very little opposition or debate on the matter. There have also been other incredibly sketchy occurrences dealing with those who disagree from the United Russia party. “Opposition leader Alexei Navalny is in jail. His electoral network was declared an extremist organization in June and effectively banned. Its leaders, other opposition figures, human rights activists, human rights lawyers and independent journalists have been arrested or fled the country.”

These are all signs of a democratic downfall, and the public says that there is little hope for change of the dictatorship like rule of the Kremlin party anytime soon. An American reporter writes, “We call upon Russia to honor its international obligations to respect human rights and fundamental freedoms and to end its pressure campaign on civil society, the political opposition, and independent media,” and one can only hope change is enacted sooner rather than later. 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/europe/russia-election-analysis/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-election-results/2021/09/20/351973a4-1a05-11ec-bea8-308ea134594f_story.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/pro-putin-party-wins-majority-in-russian-elections-despite-declining-support

France Alarmed by Russian Mercenary Deal with Mali

On September 9th, France 24 news reported an alleged deal between Mali’s ruling military junta and the shadowy Russian-backed security contractor Wagner Group. This comes at a time when France has begun withdrawing its forces from the Sahel region, an area of Africa which encompasses Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and several other African countries. The Sahel is a semi-arid zone bordering the Sahara desert, with its frequent droughts and sandstorms being exacerbated by climate change. Moreover, countries inside of it are known for extreme instability, leaving large parts of the Sahel an ungoverned haven for extremist groups.

France has been involved in fighting Islamic extremism in the Sahel for over 8 years alongside its former colonies, earning the nickname France’s Forever War. According to the New York Times, just this past year Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have “lost hundreds” of soldiers due to raids by Islamic terrorists on military outposts.

French Foreign Legionaries in the Sahel

As French commitment seems uncertain, another powerful player has moved into the conflict: The Wagner Group. First appearing during Russia’s fighting in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014, Wagner has been on the ground wherever Russian interests are. In Syria, they aggressively backed Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, even at one point engaging US special forces in the region in 2017. In 2019, they provided security for Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, a close friend of Russian oil companies, during wide scale protests. Since then Wagner Group has moved into Africa, including Libya, Sudan, Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and Mozambique.

Wagner Group acts like a multinational corporation directly under Russian government control, except one problem: it doesn't exist. The name Wagner is a name given to a intentionally confusing web of overlapping ownership of shell companies, mercenary groups, and logistic chains linked to the very top of the Russian government tracked down by investigative journalists and government agencies. The fact that it appears decentralized allows it to avoid legal troubles. Using its connections to Russian Military and Intelligence agencies, Wagner provides trained and experienced personnel to the rulers of destabilized countries in exchange for highly profitable drilling and mining concessions to Russian companies. Many of these areas are often too dangerous for regular companies to operate, due to rebel or extremist groups; however Wagner has the firepower to protect its assets, but often at the expense of innocent civilians. All of this comes with complete plausible deniability for the Russian government, who do not have to answer for war crimes and human rights violations committed by the mercenaries in foreign countries. Arguably, Wagner profits from these conflict zones, and has no desire to improve their situations.
In response to Wagner's deal with Mali, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said: "Wagner is a militia that has shown itself in the past in Syria and Central African Republic to have carried out abuses and all sorts of violations that do not correspond with any solution and so it is incompatible with our presence."
In a recent update September 16th, French forces announced that they had killed Adnan Abou Walid al Sahraoui, leader of the Islamic State in the Grand Sahara (ISGS), mastermind behind attacks on French aid workers and US special forces in the region of the Sahel. Despite this good news, the fact remains that at some point France will leave the Sahel, with almost nothing achieved; meanwhile, Russian influence in Africa will increase with the involvement of the Wagner Group.


Sources


https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20210915-french-troops-neutralise-leader-of-islamic-state-in-the-greater-sahara-macron-says


https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20210914-reports-of-russia-mercenary-deal-in-mali-alarm-france?utm_source=dailybrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyBrief2021Sep15&utm_term=DailyNewsBrief


https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/security-disarmament-and-non-proliferation/terrorism-france-s-international-action/article/france-s-action-in-the-sahel


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/world/africa/france-sahel-west-africa-.html

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russias-wagner-group-reportedly-deployed-in-africa/2165414

Chinese Courts Attempt to Silence the #MeToo Movement

    While in many countries the #MeToo movement has been decently successful in sparking an open conversation about sexual assault crimes and encouraging victims to come forward, the #MeToo movement in China has not experienced the same success. There are many reasons for this lack of progress, including the stigmatism and criticism faced by sexual assault victims, the censorship of sexual assault claims by the Chinese government, and the flawed structure of the Chinese courts that make it nearly impossible for sexual assault victims to win their case. Since the beginning of the #MeToo movement in China back in 2018, the Chinese government has implemented various codes and regulations that attempt to make it seem as though they are taking steps to prevent sexual assault crimes. However, the reality of the situation is that these new laws are merely the country’s response to increasing public attention and concern for China’s unaddressed sexual assault problem, and new legislation has proven to be ineffective in causing actual change. Considering China’s secretive track record of human rights abuses and censorship, it is no surprise that the nation was able to successfully divert public attention from the Chinese #MeToo movement through useless legislation. For example, the “Civil Code” implemented by the Chinese government in 2018 was created to “define sexual harassment” and “obliges companies/schools to adopt policies for responding to sexual harassment,” yet, to date, no employer in China has been held liable for not appropriately responding to a sexual assault case.

Zhou Xiaoxuan arrives at court for her sexual harassment case against Zhu Jun

    Recently, the sexual assault lawsuit against popular television personality Zhu Jun by television intern Zhou Xiaoxuan has redrawn attention to the #MeToo movement in China. Zhou Xiaoxuan claims that in 2018, Zhu Jun groped and forcibly kissed her; a claim that he has denied and eventually countersued her for on account of falsely damaging his reputation. The lawsuit made major public news, drawing support for Zhou Xiaoxuan from all across the world. The bravery she has demonstrated in coming forward with her allegation has made her the face of the struggling #MeToo movement in China. Disappointingly, on September 14, 2021, Chinese courts ruled against Zhou Xiaoxuan, claiming that the evidence submitted by her legal team had failed to prove that any harassment had occurred. Supported by a crowd outside the courthouse encouraging her to “keep going,” as well as by thousands of international allies of the #MeToo movement, Zhou Xiaoxuan has announced that she intends to appeal the decision. By appealing the decision, Zhou Xiaoxuan is continuing the fight of the #MeToo movement, stating that “The impact of this case is bigger than its outcome.”

Zhu Jun, famous Chinese television host accused of sexual assault

    While disappointing, the outcome of Zhou Xiaoxuan’s lawsuit is not surprising. China’s court system is designed to make it nearly impossible for victims and their lawyers to prove that they have been sexually assaulted. The courts require cold-hard evidence, such as video footage, in order to even consider the legitimacy of the allegations. Testimonies are essentially considered useless forms of evidence, as if a case boils down to conflicting testimonies, it will almost always result in a loss for the plaintiff. However, such as in the case of Zhou Xiaoxuan, the courts oftentimes do not even allow the introduction of cold-hard evidence (when they know it will likely require a guilty verdict for the defendant). When Zhou Xiaoxuan’s lawyers attempted to introduce supporting evidence, such as video footage from outside the dressing room and police interview notes with her parents, the judges rejected their request to do so. Additionally, Zhou Xiaoxuan stated that the judges gave her little opportunity to detail her allegations or to make a statement. China’s corrupt court system is designed to guarantee that cases like Zhou Xiaoxuan’s are not given a fair chance in court, in order to protect the harassers.

    There are several reasons as to why so few women come forward with sexual assault allegations in China, and to why the country needs brave women like Zhou Xiaoxuan to stand up for the struggles of millions. First and foremost, censorship of the #MeToo movement by the Chinese government has made it extremely difficult for individuals to share their stories and support one another on social media. For example, when Zhou Xiaoxuan first posted her accusation against Zhu Jun on Chinese social media sites, it was eventually taken down by government censors. While Zhou Xiaoxuan’s post happened to go viral before it was removed, most accusations do not gain much attention and are never again acknowledged. Censorship discourages victims from coming forward with their stories on social media, as they see it as a waste of time if they know it will inevitably be removed. In addition to censorship, individuals are discouraged from coming forward with allegations due to the likelihood for their harasser to counterattack with their own lawsuit. The Chinese legal system makes it incredibly easy for harassers to sue their victims, even allowing them to request enormous amounts of money for “damage to their reputation.” The possibility of losing and being forced to pay thousands of dollars scares victims, and discourages them from suing their harassers in the first place. On a similar note, on the off chance that a victim is awarded a damage award, the amount of money that they are bestowed is pathetically insignificant. In fact, there have been instances in which the “damage award” was a mere apology - that the victim never received. This lack of damage awards makes victims question if coming forward is even worth it; is being publicly shamed worth being an advocate for the #MeToo movement? Is risking financial devastation worth the low-percentage chance of winning the lawsuit? Is being labeled as “dirty” after being sexually assaulted worth sharing one's trauma? These are important questions to which few Chinese victims have answered yes.

Zhou Xiaoxuan stands outside of a court in Beijing after her hearing

    I think that the only hope for the #MeToo movement in China is to subject the government to international pressure. China desperately attempts to stay out of the public eye, and I think that there is a chance that directing international attention towards their neglect of justice for sexual assault victims could cause a change. After all, there is only so much change that Chinese victims can achieve on their own in such a repressive and unjust social and political climate. As stated by Zhou Xiaoxuan, “I think I’ve done everything I can. I can’t make any more effort. I think I’ve already given this my all.” In this quote, Zhou Xiaoxuan expresses that, despite her appeal to the decision, she lacks optimism that she will ever be given a fair chance in court. However, appealing is her only opportunity to continue advocating for, and drawing attention to, the silenced #MeToo movement in China. Though it has gotten off to a slow start, the #MeToo movement in China is gaining attention and needs the support of other countries in order to spark impactful change.


Sources

Information:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/world/asia/china-zhou-xiaoxuan-metoo.html

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/15/china/xianzi-zhu-jun-sexual-harassment-case-mic-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zhou-xiaoxuan-case-china-court-rejects-ex-intern-me-too-sexual-harassment-suit/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/20/once-woman-won-metoo-case-china-why-is-it-so-hard/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imV96yqqz08

Images:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-metoo-plaintiff-heads-back-court-what-could-be-last-time-2021-09-14/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/15/world/asia/china-zhou-xiaoxuan-metoo.html

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/2165974/chinas-metoo-movement-takes-legal-turn-woman-applies-counter-sue