France's Political Future: The 2022 Presidential Election

      France is heading towards a presidential election in 2022 in which multiple conservative candidates are challenging incumbent president, Emmanuel Macron. Macron, while he hasn’t announced his candidacy, is expected to run for another term. Macron has maintained his position as a centrist throughout his term and is the leader of his party, La République En Marche, also referred to as En Marche. His party has been identified as liberal but the country has faced ideological shifts that feature increasingly anti-liberal sentiments. In addition to that, there is also criticism for Macron, within the left-leaning sectors, that he has not been as progressive as designated required for issues relating to Islamic xenophobia, trade unions, and the famous Yellow Vest Protests. Macron’s economic policies have also not been popular with French citizens, largely due to being part of major reforms.

His main opponent currently would be Marine Le Pen, a far-right candidate, who was his frontrunning opponent during the last presidential election. Additional political players include a grassroots group called the Rencontre des Justices, the Socialist party, and environmentalist groups who don’t currently hold much sway in the French political system. The focus and gravity of this race, therefore, is placed on deciding the future political attitude of the country, which could be left-leaning with Macron, or conservative with Le Pen and the other five conservative candidates who have declared. Those other five candidates may have a shot at being one of the front-running candidates, considering that France is also experiencing voter abstention. Political analysts have suggested that the absention implies the  public does not seem satisfied with an election that will feature a rematch between Macron and Le Pen, but this could also be tied in with Covid 19 related difficulties. 

       

The capacity and logistics of the 2022 Presidential election is expected to run more smoothly, excluding the politics. However, the political organization that is occurring, shows that there is a strong sense of disillusionment with Macron, and conservatives will be capitalizing on that divide between leftists. Between the Rencontre des Justices, which is also left-leaning and liberal, and the Socialist Party, who are actively working to gain support, the rallying and defense for Macron’s presidency simply is not there yet. The concept of a conservative lead in France poses some concerns, especially considering that under the centrist policy of Macron, islamic separatism policies have been promoted as a solution. These policies have all been controversial as they are discriminatory in that they are directly referencing the Islamic faith and also an attempt to limit the visibility of Islamic peoples. French conservatism, however, is also connected with nationalist sentiments, which could prove to be particularly persecuting or intolerant of the Islamic faith. The conservative economic policy is likely to be favorable to voters, considering it would feature less reform, stricter immigration policy, and company support for domestic businesses. However, during Macron's term, strong political activism and agency has been displayed in France, often leading to concessions from the government. Such activism is not likely to stop under a conservative France, but for some, its prospects may be particularly impactful and conflicting.