The Grand Renaissance Dam: A Shift of Power Dynamics Over Scarce Natural Resources

Threatening access to the Nile's water is a "red line"

On March 30th, Egyptian President and former general, Abdel Fatah El Sisi, issued his sternest warning to Ethiopia on Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). Speaking during a presser to mark the freeing of the Ever Given cargo ship, El Sisi said that Ethiopia will not be allowed to take "a single drop" of water from Egypt, and warned that further attempts to disrupt the Nile's flow will cause "inconceivable instability" in the region. Addis Ababa stated in recent weeks that it will go ahead with the second phase of filling the GERD without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan. It also continued to oppose Cairo and Khartoum's proposition to bring international figures like the EU, US, UN, and African Union to help mediate an agreement.


Media outlets in Egypt are rallying the public to support El Sisi's stance on the matter. Political commentator Mostafa El Fekky said that Egypt still has other options to resolve the impasse. He however declined to say what those options could entail but pointed out that Egypt has shown patience in the entire negotiation process and doesn't particularly want to resort to military confrontation.

El Sisi on March 30th, 2021 in front of the Suez Canal - Ahram Online

The dispute over the Nile River and Egypt's monopoly of the region is an anachronism. British imperial ambitions forced the initiation of agreements to control the Nile waters. The first agreement was made between Great Britain, as the colonial power in eastern Africa, and Egypt. The 1929 agreement favored Egypt and Sudan over other riparian countries. Egypt would receive 48 billion cubic meters of water annually and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters. In addition, Egypt would not need the consent of upstream states to undertake water projects in its territories but could veto projects on any tributaries of the Nile in the upstream countries.


Over the years, Egypt continues to use its extensive diplomatic connections and the 1929 treaty and its modification in 1959. The 1959 agreement signed by Egypt and an independent Sudan increased Egypt's share to 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan's to 18.5 billion, ignoring the needs of other riparian countries including Ethiopia which supplies 70% to 80% of the Nile waters and thus none of the other Nile basin countries ever approved the agreements.


The current disputes over the Nile water recall Aswan, Egypt 50 years on. The Aswan High Dam was initiated in the early 1950s by Pan-Arabist president Gamal Abdel Nasser. The 111 meters high and 3.6 kilometer-wide Aswan High Dam crucially gave Cairo power to regulate the flow of the water. The dam does what the GERD is currently trying to do for Ethiopia. It offers Egyptians enough water and protection from the hazards of floods which were absolutely catastrophic. In addition, the dam was a critical key to the development of the nation by bringing electricity to much of the country. Ethiopia today uses similar arguments but Egypt continues to see the GERD as an existential threat.

Ethiopia releases new satellite image showing GERD progress February 2021 - DailyNews Egypt 

However, to Habib Ayeb, a Nile expert, the High dam "proved to be a political bomb." In building the dam, Egypt and Aswan proved power over the Nile without including any other upstream nations. According to Ayeb, the critical challenge for Egypt is the management of the water it gets at present, arguing that Egypt should halt desert irrigation where nearly half of the water is lost by evaporation and stop agricultural exports.


Based on the 1993 Cairo Cooperative Framework, Egypt and Ethiopia pledged not to implement water projects harmful to the interests of the other and to consult over projects to reduce waste and increase the flow of the water. Accordingly, Egypt is arguing that the filling of the Dam will negatively impact the country's water supply. At this point, the GERD is nearly completed and so Egypt has shifted its position to try to secure a political agreement over the timetable for filling the GERD's reservoir and how it will be managed, particularly during droughts. However, the question now is whether Ethiopia will willingly release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream.

El-Sissi with DRC’s President Felix Tshisekedi in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa 2019 - Africa Report

Diplomatic Republic of Congo's president Felix Tshisekedi has promised to tackle the dispute over the GERD during his chairmanship of the African Union (AU). A ministerial-level meeting will take place between 3 and 5 of April 2021 in Kinshasa, the capital of the Diplomatic Republic of Congo, between the three countries to come to an agreement.

Sources:


Mbaku, John. 2021. "The Controversy Over The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam". Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/08/05/the-controversy-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam/#:~:text=A%20long%20history%20of%20conflict,the%20Blue%20Nile%20in%202011.

(www.dw.com), Deutsche. 2021. "Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan Set For More Dam Talks After El-Sissi Issues Stark Warning | DW | 01.04.2021." DW.COM. https://www.dw.com/en/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-set-for-more-dam-talks-after-el-sissi-issues-stark-warning/a-57080187 (1 April 2021).


Staff, Reuters. 2021. "FACTBOX: Nile River Agreements And Issues." U.S.. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-nile-factbox-sb-idUSTRE56Q3MD20090727 (2 April 2021).



El-Said, Mohammed. 2021. "Ethiopia Releases New Satellite Image Showing GERD Progress - Daily News Egypt." Daily News Egypt. https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/02/27/ethiopia-releases-new-satellite-image-showing-gerd-progress/ (1 April 2021).


"Agreements That Favour Egypt's Rights To Nile Waters Are An Anachronism." 2021. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/agreements-that-favour-egypts-rights-to-nile-waters-are-an-anachronism-103353 (2 April 2021).


"Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Threatens 'Unimaginable Instability' In The Region, Says El Sisi." 2021. The National. https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-threatens-unimaginable-instability-in-the-region-says-el-sisi-1.1194089 (31 March 2021).


Alaa El-Din, Menna. 2021. "'No One Can Take A Drop Of Water From Egypt,' Sisi Says On GERD Dispute - Politics - Egypt." Ahram Online. https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/408124/Egypt/Politics-/No-one-can-take-a-drop-of-water-from-Egypt,-Sisi-s.aspx (2 April 2021).


"Amid Nile Dam Tensions, Egypt Recalls Aswan 50 Years On | Africanews." 2021. Africanews. https://www.africanews.com/2021/01/13/amid-nile-dam-tensions-egypt-recalls-aswan-50-years-on// (31 March 2021).

What signal does "Russia and China joining forces" send to the United States?

The past short period of time has been a watershed in Russia's relations with the West, especially with the United States. In two dramatic television appearances, U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin changed the course of relations, perhaps irreversibly.

Most Western observers focused on Putin's "spoof" of Biden, who dryly wished his American counterpart "good health" (although, by Putin's own account, he did not mean to be snide). This, of course, came after Biden called Putin a "killer.

But it is necessary to read Putin's message to the United States more carefully and completely in order to understand exactly what the Russian leader is trying to tell Americans: Don't judge us by the standards you call us by and don't try to tell us what to do.

Putin has never been so outspoken in asserting these claims. And when he did, the problem was serious.

Putin's message to Biden

The tense test of intensity began with an interview with Biden by ABC correspondent George Stephanopoulos, who, when asked about Biden's opinion of Putin, described him as a "killer" and soulless. He also said that Putin would "pay the price" for his actions.

Then, in an unusual move, Putin responded to Biden with a prepared five-minute statement on state television VGTRK.

Putin recalled with unparalleled poignancy the Indian holocaust in U.S. history, the brutal course of slavery, the continued oppression of blacks in the United States to this day, and the needless use of nuclear weapons to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in World War II.

He advised countries not to judge other countries by their own standards: "Whatever you say about others is what you are yourself."

Some American journalists and observers see this as a "spoof," but it is not.

Putin wanted to send what he called the "establishment, the ruling class" in the United States the most important message of recent years, and his remarks were merely an introduction to that message. He said the U.S. leadership is determined to build a relationship with Russia, but only "on U.S. terms."

"Although they think that we are the same as they are, we are different people. We have different genetic, cultural, and moral codes. But we know how to defend our own interests. And we will work with them, but in those areas in which we ourselves are interested, and on those conditions that we consider beneficial for ourselves. And they will have to reckon with it. They will have to reckon with this, despite all attempts to stop our development. Despite the sanctions, insults, they will have to reckon with this."

This is a new statement from Putin. For years, he has always politely pointed out that Western powers need to deal with Russia on the basis of observing proper diplomatic etiquette and mutual respect for national sovereignty if they want to de-escalate tensions.

But never has he been more outspoken than now: Don't judge or punish us because we don't meet what you call universal standards, because we are different from you. Those days are over. 

China is also fighting back

Putin's statement was very similar to a similarly tough public statement made by a senior Chinese diplomat to Secretary of State Blinken in Alaska.

Blinken opened by attacking China's increasingly authoritarian and brutal domestic and foreign policy (e.g., on Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea). Such behavior, he claimed, threatens "the rules-based order that maintains global stability."

In his response, Yang Jiechi, the Chinese Communist Party official in charge of foreign affairs, denounced U.S. hypocrisy. He said:

"The US does not have the qualification to say that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength. The US uses its military force and financial hegemony to carry out long-arm jurisdiction and suppress other countries. It abuses so-called notions of national security to obstruct normal trade exchanges, and to incite some countries to attack China."

He said the United States has no right to sell its democracy to other countries until it has dealt with so many public grievances and human rights issues in its own country.

China and Russia are getting closer 

Putin's statement was given more weight by two diplomatic actions: Russia's recall of its ambassador to the United States and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's trip to China to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

At the summit, Russia and China agreed to stand firm against Western sanctions, strengthen relations between the two countries and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade and settlements. Lavrov added: "We both believe the US has a destabilizing role. It relies on Cold War military alliances and is trying to set up new alliances to undermine the world order."

The two powers are also demonstrating that even if they have not yet formed a military alliance, they will work together in increasingly tacit agreement as close partners. They will increase cooperation in areas where they share common interests and seek to find new alternatives to the Western-dominated trade and payment system.

How this alternative international order, led by Moscow and Beijing, will develop is being closely watched by Asian and other extraterritorial countries. They can also detect the signs of an intensifying economic and political decline in the United States.

This is a new Cold War, but one that is not based on ideological differences as it was the first time. It is a war for international legitimacy, a struggle for hearts and minds and money in a wider world that is not aligned with the United States or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The United States and its allies will continue to hold on to their discourse, while Russia and China will push their competing narratives. This has been evident in the dramatic great power diplomacy of the past few days.

The global balance of power is shifting, and for many countries, the smart bets may have to be placed on Russia and China.

References

Sunday Exclusive on 'This Week': Russian President Vladimir Putin https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/01/sunday-exclusive-on-this-week-russian-president-vladimir-putin/

Biden says Putin has 'no soul' and will pay a price for election interference – video https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2021/mar/17/biden-says-putin-has-no-soul-and-will-pay-a-price-for-election-interference-video

China Berates U.S. in Alaska Showdown

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/19/china-united-states-alaska-talks/

US, China spar in first face-to-face meeting under Biden

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-alaska-antony-blinken-yang-jiechi-wang-yi-fc23cd2b23332fa8dd2d781bd3f7c178

REFILE-UPDATE 9-U.S., Chinese diplomats clash in first high-level meeting of Biden administration

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-china-alaska-idUSL1N2LH0A5

Russia recalls its ambassador to the U.S. for consultations

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-recalls-ambassador-us-consultations-76515771

China and Russia pledge to stand up to Western sanctions

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-and-russia-pledge-to-stand-up-to-western-sanctions-20210323-p57d74

China-Russia Ties: Chinese FM Wang Yi meets his Russian counterpart Lavrov

https://news.cgtn.com/news/304d6a4d7a454464776c6d636a4e6e62684a4856/share_p.html

The Political Destruction in Haiti

Haiti is in a democratic deficit. Haiti is hurting. 

 Jovenel Moïse, the current and 42nd president of Haiti, started as an entrepreneur and local politician. In his campaign, Moïse advocated and supported policies like universal education and healthcare, the rule of law, and Haiti's further development. 

However, his position as the head of government in Haiti is seen as fraudulent by many. In October of 2016, category 5 Hurricane Matthew hit Haiti and caused massive damage in the surrounding environment and other important aspects of citizens' lives and politically. Six weeks after this catastrophe, an election took place where there was only 21% voter turnout, and almost half of these votes were for Jovenel Moïse. Jovenel Moïse won this 2016 election and eventually took office. 

 

Moïse seems like an excellent person to hold the presidency for a struggling country like Haiti; he cares about all the right things- especially universal education and healthcare. Nevertheless, Moïse has nothing but a bad reputation for those in Haiti and those following this unfortunate situation. 

Those in opposed leadership of Moïse are currently trying to dispute the President and his supporters. From the opinion of legal experts and civil leaders, say his term was supposed to end February 7 of this year officially- but President Moïse and his army of supporters deny this and believe they should stay in office until February of 2022. But why? 

The controversy comes in when they begin to look at the dates. He won the election in November of 2016 but was officially President in February of 2017. There is much contemplation as to when his time should have started. 

"Article 134-1 of the Haitian Constitution states, 'the duration of the presidential mandate is five years. This period begins and ends on the February 7 following the date of elections'.

But Article 134-2 stipulates that 'in case the vote cannot take place before February 7, the elected president takes office immediately after the vote is confirmed and his mandate is expected to begin on February 7 in the year of the election'" (Joseph, 2021).

Even though the Haitian Superior Council of Judicial Power and other influential governmental organizations have clearly stated that Moïse should have left office in February of 2021, he refuses. 

It's almost as if Moïse believes he is above the law and Constitution of the land of Haiti. Like he is exempt from any law made to make democracy fair in Haiti. 

Moïse is also trying to change things as much as possible while he still has the power he is not supposed to have. He is getting rid of judges, changing who is in office, and making things go his way. It's like he isn't even considering the impact it has on the citizens of Haiti. So what does this mean for them? What can they do? 

The education system is stopped to protect students and administrators from the government's severe outbreak and violence. Society is moving at the slowest speed in decades. The citizens of Haiti cannot be victimized any longer by the misinterpretation and disdain of the Constitution. 

Haitian demonstrators are demanding that Moïse leave office as soon as possible. He is a dictator causing the country to deteriorate by allowing things to slide with unauthorized groups. Thousands of people have marched in the nation's capital, and there is no good response from this. 

While Haitian citizens fight for their rights and for Moïse to be taken out of office, they are being terrorized by the police and gang violence uptick. A human rights activist believes that "The country is now gangsterized — what we are living is worse than during the dictatorship" (Isaac et al., 2021). The police are hurting its citizens with tear gas, and weapons and gangs have impunity- is this why they are taking advantage  (Joseph, 2021)? 

Unfortunately, Haitian citizens have to keep fighting and be consistent with their fight. It may seem like a never-ending battle right now, but eventually, their time of peace and solidarity will come again. 

 

References: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/world/americas/haiti-protests-President-Jovenel-Mois.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/28/what-is-happening-in-haiti-political-crisis-persists

 Another Pandemic: Police Brutality Outbreak in Mexico

2020 was a life-changing year for everyone around the world. Not only were we living through the historic Coronavirus pandemic, but the we all witnessed one of the “best countries” repeatedly murder its citizens. The names of Breonna Taylor, George Floyd, and Ahmuad Arbery (to list a few) were shouted and reposted across protestsacross the nation and social media platforms. 

The political environment of the United States became the most tense over face masks, vaccines, race and blue lives. Topics such as mass incarceration, abolishing the police, and racial inequality rose as we neared a Presidential election. 

Fast forward a year later, and the list of victims killed in the hands of law enforcement keeps growing. . The term “police brutality” expands from beatings, to indiscriminate use of riot controls, to killings, according to Amnesty International. It is a given that police brutality sees no borders. Most recently, we see the brokenness of justice systems in Tulum, Mexico; where this past Saturday, March 27, a Salvadoran woman, Victoria Salazar Arriaza was announced dead. The state prosecutor reported a broken vertebrae- as a result of being knelt on by police officers. 

At this point, these devastating events are no longer surprising. The public is fed up. I am tired of seeing red and blue lights represent blood and tears of loss, grief, and suffering instead of protection, service, and trust. 

What makes policing institutions so complex? Why are countries struggling to maintain order within authority and citizen encounters? And how do we combat those in power taking advantage of that power? 

      The case in Tulum “echoes'' that of George Floyed- in the words of The Washington Post. I think it certainly reinforces the human right violations of law enforcement, but also reminds us of the institutionalized corruption in Mexico; corruption stemmed on drugs, crime, greedy leaders, violence against women and journalists. 

The Mexican government is known for covering and participating in organized bribes and crimes. The machista ideologies run deep in the society and therefore do not protect women or their rights. Police brutality also broke out on the International Women’s Day protest in Mexico city, were feminist marched for victims of violence. The drug cartels have the biggest influence on government officials and policy. Journalist’s are murdered or go missing with no investigations. Brooking’s doubts the state's progress saying, “The country has managed to develop a pluralistic political system, conduct credible elections, and nonviolently effectuate changes of national leadership. But the country continues to suffer from poor governance..” Radical change is the only option, not only for Mexico’s government, but for policing worldwide. Enough is enough. 

Felbab-Brown, Vanda. “The Ills and Cures of Mexico's Democracy.” Brookings, Brookings, 25 Nov. 2019, www.brookings.edu/research/the-ills-and-cures-of-mexicos-democracy/. 

Hajjaji, Danya. “Who Was Victoria Salazar? Woman's Death at Tulum Police Hands Evokes George Floyd.” Newsweek, Newsweek, 29 Mar. 2021, www.newsweek.com/victoria-salazar-death-tulum-police-george-floyd-1579530. 

Jennifer Hassan, Mary Beth Sheridan. “In Echo of George Floyd Killing, a Woman Dies after Police in Mexico Pin Her Down.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 29 Mar. 2021, www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/03/29/tulum-police-death-victoria/. 

“POLICE VIOLENCE AROUND THE WORLD.” Amnesty International USA, www.amnestyusa.org/issues/deadly-force-police-accountability-police-violence/. 

The Humanitarian Crisis in Myanmar.

Myanmar, also known as Burma, is an ethnically and religiously diverse country in Southeast Asia. It was ruled by a military government for nearly 50 years until it began to shift to a more democratic nation roughly a decade ago (BBC 2021). A series of reforms by the military government in 2011 and 2012 opened the door for political activist Aung San Suu Kyi, along with her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to help transform the nation into a democratic government (BBC 2021). This culminated with her election as State Counselor in 2015.

Protestors in Myanmar. AP News.

The following election, in November of 2020, saw the NLD party secure roughly 83% of the 476 available seats (BBC 2021). The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development party were left with only a small fraction of the seats (BBC 2021). The military, also known as the Tatmadaw, claimed that the election was fraudulent and blamed voter errors as well as foreign interference for their overwhelming defeat.

Unable to accept the loss of the election, the Tatmadaw, lead by Min Aung Hlaing, staged a coup on February 1st of this year. They arrested several national leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi, in an attempt to seize back control of the government (BBC 2021). The outraged citizens of Myanmar are peacefully protesting the coup and are demanding that the Tatmadaw relinquish its power and return government control to the NLD party. Unfortunately, the Tatmadaw has labeled any protester as a criminal and is allowing for open fire on unarmed citizens, causing a severe humanitarian crisis (Beech). Since the beginning of February over 400 innocent people, including infants and children, have been murdered by the militant government (BBC 2021). The brutal massacre has seen some citizens burned alive by the Tatmadaw, including a snack vendor in Mandalay (Doherty).

Loved ones mourning the loss of their relative who was shot in the chest.
Times Magazine

While many people abroad may wonder how these soldiers can stomach murdering innocent citizens, Capt. Tun Myat Aung, who deserted the military, gave valuable insight. According to him, people in the Tatmadaw are “brainwashed” by the military and are fed propaganda while also being closely monitored (Beech). Many people are raised in the military and gain a fear of foreign influence. In some ways, it reminds me of George Orwell’s 1984, where the children in that society were trained to believe everything the government had told them, prepping them to do anything for their country without question. Due to this constant stream of propaganda, as well as being insulated from the rest of their society, the soldiers are willing to carry out any orders they are given (Beech). These men have never truly experienced democractic leadership but instead are under the thumb of a charismatic authoritarian ruler.

Soldiers in Myanmar. Politico

The larger question yet to be answered is, what do other nations do about it? As of right now, the U.S.A. has imposed sanctions, ending all diplomatic trade with Myanmar. President Joe Biden’s administration stated that the block on trade "’ will remain in effect until the return of a democratically elected government,’"(Klein 2021). The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar hopes to implement what they call the “three cuts” strategy in hopes to fight the crisis in Myanmar (Doherty). They want to petition the international courts for help, implement an internally monitored arms embargo, and use financial sanctions to strip the military of any funding (Doherty).

Sen General Min Aung Hlaing. Times Magazine

I personally agree with the stance of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, that there should be international action taken to stop the needless killing of innocent people. I applaud the nations, like those in the EU or the United States, for taking some action to put an end to the horrendous rule of the military government. However, I believe the United Nations is the proper authority to intervene with aggressive action. Knowing that the Tatmadaw is suspicious of the meddling of outside democracies, I believe it would do little good for just a small coalition of nations to get involved. The UN, with its broad council of nations from many political ideologies, should have more legitimacy in the eyes of the military. UN troops can protect the innocent citizens of Myanmar and also contain the military and restore the elected government leaders who are now wrongfully imprisoned.

Injured protestors in a makeshift hospital. Times Magazine.

Though intervention in the affairs of other nations should only be done with careful consideration, I believe there are times when the human rights of others must be protected. History is filled with preventable atrocities, and we do not want to live with the regret of inaction.

Restoring the rightfully elected leaders of Myanmar would be the best outcome of UN or other foreign intervention. Unlike failed attempts to install favorable governments by foreign actors, this would simply be the preservation of the existing and sovereign government that the people of Myanmar have chosen.

Sources:

Beech, Hannah. “Inside Myanmar's Army: 'They See Protesters as Criminals'.” The New York Times, 28 Mar. 2021, www.nytimes.com/2021/03/28/world/asia/myanmar-army-protests.html.

Doherty, Ben. “Myanmar Military a 'Terrorist Group' That Should Face International Court, Advisory Council Says.” The Guardian, 29 Mar. 2021, www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/30/myanmar-military-a-terrorist-group-that-should-face-international-court-advisory-council-says.

Klein, Betsy. “US Suspends All Diplomatic Trade Engagement with Myanmar After Weekend of Violence Against Pro-Democracy Protesters.” CNN, Cable News Network, 29 Mar. 2021, www.cnn.com/2021/03/29/politics/us-trade-suspension-myanmar/index.html.

BBC. “Myanmar: Why Are People Protesting? .” BBC News, 28 Mar. 2021, www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/56554156.

AP News.“Myanmar Protesters Back on Streets despite Police Violence.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 10 Feb. 2021, apnews.com/article/myanmar-coup-protests-updates-9408933976f3e63103627cff2eed8236. 

Win, Thin Lei. “What You Need to Know about the Coup in Myanmar.” POLITICO, 2 Feb. 2021, www.politico.eu/article/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-coup-in-myanmar/.

Suez Canal's Latest Crisis

On March 23, 2021, the Suez Canal made national headlines for a rather unpleasant reason. The Egypt-based, man-made waterway endured a blockage initiated by the Ever Given, a 1300 foot long container ship carrying all sorts of goods from China headed to a port in the Netherlands. 

Captured above is the position of the Ever Given as it struggled to move through the Suez Canal.

The effects of this nautical incident extend far beyond delaying the arrival of Ever Given's cargo. The Suez Canal is one of the most lucrative trading routes in the world. The water was blocked for six days, having a global impact. 400 other ships were prevented from transporting their goods as well. The canal blockage cost the global market around $400 million per hour. Transporting an estimated $9 billion of goods per day, the financial implications of this blockage will run deep into the future of global finances. The Suez conducts 12% of all global trade, and holds 30% of container ship traffic on a daily basis.

This graphic shows the Suez Canal's significance to the world. 

The Ever Given has since been dislodged from the canal, after the efforts of twelve tugboats and almost a week's worth of time. The financial scars left by this incident will continue to haunt the global market in the upcoming months, as will the safety of the canal itself. How can something like this be prevented in the future? Will there be restrictions on the size of ships from here on out? Will that slow down the transportation of goods and the resources available, costing more in the long run? This small slip up definitely made catastrophic waves on the global economy.

References:

Lu, Marcus. “Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt.” Visual Capitalist, 26 Mar. 2021, www.visualcapitalist.com/suez-canal-critical-waterway-comes-to-halt/.

Neuman, Scott, and Jackie Northam. “How A Long Shutdown Of The Suez Canal Might Have Roiled The Global Economy.” NPR, NPR, 29 Mar. 2021, www.npr.org/2021/03/26/981600153/heres-how-a-long-shutdown-of-the-suez-canal-might-roil-the-global-economy.

Suez Canal Authority. “Continuing the Floatation Works of the Grounding Vessel in the Suez Canal.” SCA - Continuing the Floatation Works of the Grounding Vessel in the Suez Canal, www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/MediaCenter/News/Pages/Navigation_new25-03-2021.aspx.

Yee, Vivian, and Peter S. Goodman. “Suez Canal Blocked After Giant Container Ship Gets Stuck.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 24 Mar. 2021, www.nytimes.com/2021/03/24/world/middleeast/suez-canal-blocked-ship.html.

Thailand in Turmoil Once Again

 Protests in Thailand began in early 2020 against the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and later against the long-standing Thai monarchy. The protests can be attributed to alterations to the Thai Constitution in 2017, distrust of the 2019 general election, the dissolution of the Future Forward Party (FFP) in February of 2020 by Prime Minister Prayut, and increasing use of Thai lèse-majesté laws. The goals of the protests have been to dissolve the current parliament and hold new elections, end police and military intimidation of civilians, draft a new constitution, amend the lèse-majesté laws, and the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut.

Figure 1. Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.

It is not uncommon for elected government officials in Thailand to be overthrown by military coups, in fact, thirteen successful coups have taken place since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. The most recent coup took place in 2014 and was led by the former head of the Royal Thai Army, Prayut Chan-o-cha who became the Prime Minister of Thailand and the leader of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) following the coup. In 2017, a new constitution was drafted by the military after a widely disputed constitutional referendum was held in 2016. The new constitution favors the military and sets political parties at a disadvantage by implementing a military-appointed Senate, allowing the military to appoint two prime ministers in the future, and requiring future governments to follow a '20-year national strategy plan' also drafted by the military. The new constitution ensures the Thai government will be following military-guided plans of democracy even after the junta loses power.

The 2019 general election, the first election since the coup in 2014, ended the NCPO, but in name only. The political system continued in the form of the Palang Pracharat Party, again headed by Prayut, and adopted NCPO politics. Following the election, during which Prayut's party won the most votes and gained 116 of 500 seats in the House, Prayut was reelected as Prime Minister.

Figure 2. Results of the 2019 Thai general election.

A new party that emerged during the 2019 general election was the FFP, a progressive party largely followed by Thai youths which provided an alternative to traditional Thai political parties. The party gained the third largest number of parliamentary seats during the election but was later dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020.

Finally, the usage of Thai lèse-majesté laws has increased since the 2014 coup and many view it as a way to suppress political dissent and free speech. Violations of the law can result in prison sentences upwards of 16 years.

Demonstrations, which initially began on college campuses, have since erupted all over Thailand following the dissolution of the FFP in early 2020. Although protests were temporarily paused due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have recently picked up and have been gaining traction again.

Figure 3. Protesters at the Democracy Monument in Bangkok, the nation's capital.

Protesters have been met with criminal charges, detention and police intimidation, military warfare units, riot police, pro-government groups, and mass media censorship. The demonstrations have frequently devolved into violence between riot police & royalist groups and protesters, and many have been injured.

Figure 4. Use of water cannons by riot police to disperse protesters.

Most recently, five pro-democracy protesters were arrested yesterday on charges of 'attempting to harm the queen' at a demonstration that took place in October of last year. During the altercation in question, the queen and the king's son drove through a small demonstration while protesters shouted anti-monarchy slogans at the limousine. Although the queen was not in any imminent danger and protesters have denied the accusations, the demonstrators were arrested and accused of violence against the royal family, which could result in 16-20 years of prison.

Figure 5. Queen's motorcade through anti-government demonstration in October 2020.

The Thai government has done little to meet the demands of the protesters, so demonstrations will likely continue. As the movement continues to grow following its hiatus during the COVID-19 pandemic, hopefully protestors will see positive responses from the government. The government as it currently operates infringes on the rights of its people and continues to prioritize its own goals rather than those of its citizens. Hopefully, these demonstrations will result in major change.

Further reading on:

2020-2021 Thai Protests

2019 Thai General Election

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha

Protester Perspectives

Sources:

Associated Press. (31 March 2021). "Thailand pro-democracy activists charged over protest near queen's motorcade." The Guardian.

Kongkirati, P., & Kanchoochat, V. (2018). The Prayuth Regime: Embedded Military and Hierarchical Capitalism in Thailand. TRaNS: Trans -Regional and -National Studies of Southeast Asia, 6(2), 279-305.

Kri-aksorn, Thammachart. (19 August 2020). "All you need to know about Thai protests." Prachatai.

Online Reporters. (16 October 2020). "Water cannon used on protesters." Bangkok Post.

Peck, Grant. (21 February 2020). "Court in Thailand orders popular opposition party dissolved." ABC News.

Prachatai Staff. (15 July 2014). "2014 coup marks the highest number of lese majeste prisoners in Thai history." Prachatai.

Reuters Staff. (15 October 2020). "Explainer: What's behind Thailand's protests?" Reuters.

Sawasdee, S.N. (2020). Electoral integrity and repercussions of institutional manipulations: The 2019 general election in Thailand. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 5(1), 52-68.

Wilson, J. & Satrusayang, C. (1 March 2020). "22 detained after night of violence in Bangkok." Thai Enquirer.

Yuda, Masayuki. (18 November 2020). "Thailand parliament weighs changing constitution as protests rage." Nikkei Asia.

Obstruction of the Suez Canal

On Tuesday, March 23, the Suez canal obstruction began after a 200,000-ton ship was grounded due to a mixture of a sand storm with strong winds and human/technical error.  The Suez Canal, which links the Mediterranean and the red sea, had been blocked for about 6 days. On Monday, March 29, the canal finally was unblocked as tug boats were able to maneuver the grounded ship, “Ever Given”,  away from the land.

Due to this obstruction, some countries such as South East Asia and India had to detour all the way around Africa if they were trying to get to the western hemisphere. For some other ships, it caused a growing backup of up to 400 ships. This put a high risk on the cargo on the ships since there was some livestock aboard. The Ever Given was owned by a Japanese firm but operated by a Taiwanese shipper. However, this blockage will cause several months of disruption for the global supply chain since 80-90 ships pass through this canal a day, and around 10 billion dollars of trade pass through each day. More specifically, “about 12% of global trade, around one million barrels of oil and roughly 8% of liquefied natural gas pass through the canal each day”(bbc.com).  The prices of oils and other commodities have already increased due to this issue. Not only is the global shipping industry and the Egyptian economy affected by the blockage but it trickles down to the smaller business and industries too as there was a delay to receiving products. If the blockage continued to last some firms would have no choice but to order their products by air freight which is 3 times more expensive (bbc.com). The blockage is adding to the already existing problems of trade during the covid era, considering the difficulties of production and trade due to the desire to contain the virus.

Following the unblocking of the canal, more problems might arise, such as more congestion since many ships are waiting to take their normal sailing route. The majority of this issue will fall on individual consumers who have to pay for the rising prices of goods. This could generate more problems since some face financial struggles from covid. Some operations and regulations of the Suez canal are likely to change since over the years shipping vessels have been getting bigger and bigger. 

Sources

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/03/29/suez-canal-ever-given-ship-freed-effects-backlog-todd-dnt-tsr-vpx.cnn

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/with-ship-now-freed-a-probe-into-suez-canal-blockage-begins

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56559073

https://nypost.com/2021/03/29/giant-ship-blocking-suez-canal-freed-but-economic-impact-looms/

Military Coup in Myanmar

Myanmar has a history of problems with the military: about 50 years ago an event happened similar to what is now unfolding. Previous to Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi election, she was a Myanmar icon, winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. She did 15 years of house arrest, and after being released from house arrest her reputation was stained with the military. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi was selected in 2016 for state counselor. Currently, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi is waiting for her trial which is believed will take a year. In my opinion, this is to keep Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi in detention for the time being.

On the morning of February 1, 2021 a military coup seized power over the Myanmar government. The military refused to accept the votes Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi won. 83% of the available seats in the National League for Democracy had voted for her. The coup tried to argue that the votes were fraudulent. The military wants to hold a re-election for the country without any evidence that the votes were indeed fraud.

The coup took action and detained the leaders of the National League for Democracy. The military coup declared a state of emergency for one year because the 2008 constitution allows the military to do so. 

People opposed the coup through peaceful protests at first. Sadly, things took a sharp turn after two unarmed protestors were killed. Millions of people throughout Myanmar took the streets in rage. After weeks, protestors have been fighting for democracy but that has left hundreds dead and thousands injured. Out of desperation, people have gone into the countryside training with handguns and making grenades for a last stand against the military. Some think a revolution is the only chance of restoring the country to democracy.

A friend of ours lives in Myanmar. He had to get a secure app instead of whats app because he believed the military and government was watching his communications. He believes the struggles in Myanmar are not just domestic, but that foreing powers are also at play. Russians are coming in to try and help to stop the Chinese influence. In his view, if the Americans worked with the Russians, they could possibly stop what is happening in Myanmar and restore democracy. He thinks the Chinese government wants to take over, for example by financing the coup by the military. Life in Myanmar is dangerous: anonymous quote, “We were looking for a shop to put gas in our vehicle. We came across a roadblock on fire, but with a side lane to drive by. There were military and police on both sides. We slowed and they motioned us to pass.”

Domestic threats to democracy are sometimes stoked by foreign powers trying to gain influence in the region. You have to look at what's happening in a country, taking into account external influences as well as domestic struggles.

References

https://www.nytimes.com/article/myanmar-news-protests-coup.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11685977

Coup Attempt in Niger Days Before Bazoum's Inauguration

 

A political coup turned violent on Wednesday, March 31st, just a few days before the President-Elect is to be sworn in as Niger's new president. After years of political unrest, coups, and terrorism, Niger is supposed to see its first peaceful transition of power in decades. Mohomed Bazoum is scheduled to be sworn in Friday, April 2nd, replacing two-term president Mahamadou Issoufou. However, there are groups that are not pleased with the outcome of this democratic election. 

The event took place overnight from March 30th to the 31st. An armed military group attempted to overtake the presidential palace. The presidential guard was there and thwarted the attack by returning gunfire. According to witnesses, the shooting only lasted for 15-20 minutes but was still scary non the less. A few suspects have been arrested, but their identities have not been released. The president and president-elect are both safe, but the tensions are starting to rise in Niger as Islamic extremists increase their attacks across the country

Just under a week ago, there were a series of coordinated attacks that left 137 people dead throughout different villages in southwestern Niger. This occurred on the same day the Bazoum was declared the winner of the election by Niger's constitutional court. Being one of the most underdeveloped and poorest countries in the world, Niger is no stranger to violence. However, the increasing attacks are still caused for concern. Niger does not have large military capabilities, so their plan is to increase the number of trained troops in order to prevent and stop events like these from happening again. Currently, there are 25,000 troops in the army but the plan is to double that to 50,000 within the next 5 years. 

Clearly, President-Elect Bazoum will have his work cut out for him in his first 5-year term. He needs to get the violence under control and combat the terrorist groups that are wreaking havoc across the country. Hopefully, he is up for the challenge and can change the status quo of Niger for the better. 

References:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13943662

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56589168

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/31/africa/niger-attempted-coup-intl/index.html

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210331-attempted-coup-in-niger-france-24