Threatening access to the Nile's water is a "red line"
On March 30th, Egyptian President and former general, Abdel Fatah El Sisi, issued his sternest warning to Ethiopia on Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). Speaking during a presser to mark the freeing of the Ever Given cargo ship, El Sisi said that Ethiopia will not be allowed to take "a single drop" of water from Egypt, and warned that further attempts to disrupt the Nile's flow will cause "inconceivable instability" in the region. Addis Ababa stated in recent weeks that it will go ahead with the second phase of filling the GERD without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan. It also continued to oppose Cairo and Khartoum's proposition to bring international figures like the EU, US, UN, and African Union to help mediate an agreement.
Media outlets in Egypt are rallying the public to support El Sisi's stance on the matter. Political commentator Mostafa El Fekky said that Egypt still has other options to resolve the impasse. He however declined to say what those options could entail but pointed out that Egypt has shown patience in the entire negotiation process and doesn't particularly want to resort to military confrontation.
El Sisi on March 30th, 2021 in front of the Suez Canal - Ahram Online
The dispute over the Nile River and Egypt's monopoly of the region is an anachronism. British imperial ambitions forced the initiation of agreements to control the Nile waters. The first agreement was made between Great Britain, as the colonial power in eastern Africa, and Egypt. The 1929 agreement favored Egypt and Sudan over other riparian countries. Egypt would receive 48 billion cubic meters of water annually and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters. In addition, Egypt would not need the consent of upstream states to undertake water projects in its territories but could veto projects on any tributaries of the Nile in the upstream countries.
Over the years, Egypt continues to use its extensive diplomatic connections and the 1929 treaty and its modification in 1959. The 1959 agreement signed by Egypt and an independent Sudan increased Egypt's share to 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan's to 18.5 billion, ignoring the needs of other riparian countries including Ethiopia which supplies 70% to 80% of the Nile waters and thus none of the other Nile basin countries ever approved the agreements.
The current disputes over the Nile water recall Aswan, Egypt 50 years on. The Aswan High Dam was initiated in the early 1950s by Pan-Arabist president Gamal Abdel Nasser. The 111 meters high and 3.6 kilometer-wide Aswan High Dam crucially gave Cairo power to regulate the flow of the water. The dam does what the GERD is currently trying to do for Ethiopia. It offers Egyptians enough water and protection from the hazards of floods which were absolutely catastrophic. In addition, the dam was a critical key to the development of the nation by bringing electricity to much of the country. Ethiopia today uses similar arguments but Egypt continues to see the GERD as an existential threat.
Ethiopia releases new satellite image showing GERD progress February 2021 - DailyNews Egypt
However, to Habib Ayeb, a Nile expert, the High dam "proved to be a political bomb." In building the dam, Egypt and Aswan proved power over the Nile without including any other upstream nations. According to Ayeb, the critical challenge for Egypt is the management of the water it gets at present, arguing that Egypt should halt desert irrigation where nearly half of the water is lost by evaporation and stop agricultural exports.
Based on the 1993 Cairo Cooperative Framework, Egypt and Ethiopia pledged not to implement water projects harmful to the interests of the other and to consult over projects to reduce waste and increase the flow of the water. Accordingly, Egypt is arguing that the filling of the Dam will negatively impact the country's water supply. At this point, the GERD is nearly completed and so Egypt has shifted its position to try to secure a political agreement over the timetable for filling the GERD's reservoir and how it will be managed, particularly during droughts. However, the question now is whether Ethiopia will willingly release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream.
El-Sissi with DRC’s President Felix Tshisekedi in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa 2019 - Africa Report
Diplomatic Republic of Congo's president Felix Tshisekedi has promised to tackle the dispute over the GERD during his chairmanship of the African Union (AU). A ministerial-level meeting will take place between 3 and 5 of April 2021 in Kinshasa, the capital of the Diplomatic Republic of Congo, between the three countries to come to an agreement.
Sources:
Mbaku, John. 2021. "The Controversy Over The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam". Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/08/05/the-controversy-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam/#:~:text=A%20long%20history%20of%20conflict,the%20Blue%20Nile%20in%202011.
(www.dw.com), Deutsche. 2021. "Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan Set For More Dam Talks After El-Sissi Issues Stark Warning | DW | 01.04.2021." DW.COM. https://www.dw.com/en/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-set-for-more-dam-talks-after-el-sissi-issues-stark-warning/a-57080187 (1 April 2021).
Staff, Reuters. 2021. "FACTBOX: Nile River Agreements And Issues." U.S.. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-nile-factbox-sb-idUSTRE56Q3MD20090727 (2 April 2021).
El-Said, Mohammed. 2021. "Ethiopia Releases New Satellite Image Showing GERD Progress - Daily News Egypt." Daily News Egypt. https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/02/27/ethiopia-releases-new-satellite-image-showing-gerd-progress/ (1 April 2021).
"Agreements That Favour Egypt's Rights To Nile Waters Are An Anachronism." 2021. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/agreements-that-favour-egypts-rights-to-nile-waters-are-an-anachronism-103353 (2 April 2021).
"Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Threatens 'Unimaginable Instability' In The Region, Says El Sisi." 2021. The National. https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-threatens-unimaginable-instability-in-the-region-says-el-sisi-1.1194089 (31 March 2021).
Alaa El-Din, Menna. 2021. "'No One Can Take A Drop Of Water From Egypt,' Sisi Says On GERD Dispute - Politics - Egypt." Ahram Online. https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/408124/Egypt/Politics-/No-one-can-take-a-drop-of-water-from-Egypt,-Sisi-s.aspx (2 April 2021).
"Amid Nile Dam Tensions, Egypt Recalls Aswan 50 Years On | Africanews." 2021. Africanews. https://www.africanews.com/2021/01/13/amid-nile-dam-tensions-egypt-recalls-aswan-50-years-on// (31 March 2021).
No comments:
Post a Comment