The East Mediterranean Crisis and the Potential of a Proxy War

The ongoing Greek-Turkish rivalry over who gains control of the Aegean continental shelf has recently inflamed tensions in the East Mediterranean. This enduring animosity between the two NATO allies dates back to the four-century occupation of Greece by the Ottomans but—in its contemporary phase—is rooted in the Cyprus question and its outbreak in the 1950s.

All perspectives are valid, and the current situation is only the tip of an ever-growing iceberg. It is not about a bilateral conflict escalating into a local emergency, but rather, a larger international crisis that threatens to transform old differences between Greece and Turkey into a proxy war.

Root Cause of Instability

The long-standing division between the West and Turkey’s President, Tayyip Erdogan, is where this international crisis arises. His Middle East agenda has sparked major irritation among the international community (including the US, France, Israel, and many Arab states). Erdogan’s objection to sanctions against Iran in 2010 provoked the first split between the US and Turkey since World War II. He also jeopardized his relationship with Israel over Gaza and supported Arab Spring-related Islamist movements. As a result, the US imposed sanctions against Turkey in 2018 in an attempt to isolate Erdogan.

In the meantime, Turkey has expanded its reach to levels that mirror the Ottoman era. In 2017, Erdogan stationed troops in Qatar, put up a military base in Somalia, and expanded his influence in Sudan. He also intervened in the Syrian and Libyan civil wars, and after the 2016 failed Turkish coup, he built an alliance with Russia, while also maintaining a neutral relationship with Donald Trump (Kazamias). This modern Greek-Turkish conflict is attached to Turkey’s new (attempted) regional grip as it has its eye on the 1,200-mile underwater pipeline, the “East Med," which exports Israeli natural gas to Europe. However, when in 2013 Washington and Tel Aviv deserted Turkey and chose Cyprus and Greece as an alternative route for the pipeline, bilateral relations between Athens and Ankara fell apart.

The “East Med” pipeline

Ignoring International Law

SYRIZA’s Alexis Tsipras (belongs to the Greek political opposition and is the previous prime minister) might have called the East-Med “a source of stability” for the region in the past, but it is now obvious that the pipeline is nothing more than a source of profound uncertainty. Crafting the pipeline through the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Cyprus and Greece is the main reason why the situation has reached this level of escalation. The two countries ought to have established their boundaries through treaties in order to legally avoid Turkey’s unlawful, but popular claims. Another decisive reason has been the 2016 EU-Turkey Refugee Deal, which allows the return of Syrian refugees from Greece to Turkey. Being a self-contradictory EU policy, this agreement provided Erdogan with control over 3.5 million Syrian refugees whom he can push to Greece at any moment. Last February, he sparked another refugee crisis by forcing thousands of refugees along the northern Greek border of Evros until his demands in Idlib were met by EU forces (Kazamias).

Turkish foreign policy has historically disregarded International Law. Two glorious examples are its defiance of the 1982 UN Convention for the Law of the Sea and its most provocative action to this day; its occupation of Cyprus. Turkey’s decision to reopen the “ghost town” of Varosha is further proof of its provocative stance. Turkish military forces were instructed to reopen the district (forty-six years after the invasion of Cyprus) violating, once more, UN Resolutions 550/1984 and 789/1992 (United Nations Security Council resolutions 550 (1984) "Considers attempts to settle any part of Varosha by people other than its inhabitants as inadmissible and calls for the transfer of this area to the administration of the United Nations")

The “Ghost Town” of Varosha

We come to conclude that the West has to choose between maintaining its tactic of isolating Erdogan or starting to re-engage Turkey (now that the implications of not doing so have become apparent). French President Macron, who has previously stated his support for Greece, upholds an anti-Islamist sentiment and calls for EU sanctions against Turkey as well as for a united West beside Greece. Other leaders, however, have unsuccessfully advocated for Turkey and Greece’s bilateral talks. Since the Greek-Turkish wrangle is no longer bilateral, the two governments are unable to make such talks work. It is essential that Greece’s allies also intervene and set adequate conditions for such discussions to prove successful.

The international community needs to address the increasing demand for a moratorium on the exploitation of natural resources in the region, stand united instead of picking sides, and issue an agenda through which both Greece and Turkey can appeal to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea in order to establish their individual continental shelves and EEZs (Kazamias). 

Any other approach will lead us to the verge of a proxy war. 

Main Source: Alexander Kazamias

All other sources can be found above in the form of an attachment.