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Following the results of the 2020 Presidential Election in the United States, the Biden administration as well as Iranian leaders said they want to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. Decided early this week, multiple powers who had originally signed the deal in 2015 will come together in Vienna to try and restore the deal. Although this is a step in the right direction, the talks can take multiple sessions. They do not know how or who should make the first steps to get there. The deal was signed in 2015 and was formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA was implemented to restrict Iran's use of its nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief. The deal is so controversial because in May 2018, President Trump decided to withdraw the United States from the deal completely stating "it was the worst deal ever negotiated." In addition to President Trump pulling out of the deal, there were multiple attacks including the drone strikes which killed Iranian General Qassem Soleiimani. Following these events, Iran decided to resume its nuclear activity. President Biden has made it clear that the United States will return to the deal if Iran complies, but it is not that easy. If Iran were to reinstate its nuclear activity, this could create tension between rivals in the Middle East. It will be interesting to see what will happen in the next coming weeks, but we must acknowledge that there will be obstacles that each side will have to overcome.
The other participants who signed the deal in January 2016 were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. These powers are China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Germany also took part as well as The European Union. When the deal was initially signed, Iran agreed to multiple nuclear restrictions. Iran agreed that they would not produce enriched uranium and plutonium that would be used in a nuclear weapon. The deal restricted the types of centrifuges Iran can operate, the level of enrichment, and the size and stockpile of the enriched uranium. The deal also said that Iran would be subjected to inspections from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that would monitor their activity.
In response to other country's actions regarding the deal, Tehran claimed multiple breaches of the agreements in the deal. Iran attacked shipping and American allies in Iraq. More importantly, Iran began mining and exceeded the limits of the agreed-upon stockpile of enriched uranium in 2019. Iran also began developing new centrifuges to speed up uranium enrichment. Iran has also declined to answer questions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about their nuclear program. The problem of trust will always preside over this deal, thus why these talks are estimated to take weeks and maybe months. Another problem that is still in play is the sanctions that President Trump previously imposed. The revival of this deal is tough enough, and the imposed sanctions by the former President make it even worse.
Iran refuses to meet with the American diplomats face-to-face, so Europeans suggest that they will either meet the Americans with their proposals or that the Iranians will leave the room before American diplomats enter. It is believed that these talks will take a decent amount of time. Americans hope that the talks will take a turn following the Iranian government election this coming June. European diplomats think that way too much time has already passed, stating that the deal has little probability of revival. Currently, the timeline for the deal to get reinstated is unclear, but the hope is that it does get revived or a new negotiation arises.
References:
Erlanger, Steven "The Iran Nuclear Talks Explained" The New York Times April 5, 2021 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/world/europe/iran-nuclear-talks-explained.html
Kaplow, Larry "Reviving The Iran Nuclear Deal: Here's what it Involves and Why it is Hard". April 5, 2021 https://www.npr.org/2021/04/05/983405544/reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal-heres-what-it-involves-and-why-its-hard
Robinson, Kali "What is the Iran Nuclear Deal" Council on Foreign Relations February 24, 2021 https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal
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