Lessons Of Democracy: Coup doomed for failure

Tuesday, October 05, 2021

Coup doomed for failure

On September 5, 2021, President of Guinea Alpha Condé was captured by the country's armed forces in a coup d'état after gunfire in the capital, Conakry. Condé, 83, took office 11 years ago in the country’s first democratic election since independence from France in 1958. A lot of disapproval and deadly riots sparked last fall after Condé sought a third term which is against Guinea’s democratic constitution. This coup d'état was led by special arms forces commander Mamady Doumbouya contending that people’s basic human needs and rights weren’t being met. The Junta live streamed on national television announcing the arrest of Conde and the dissolvement of the government”.

Who is Doumbouya?

41 year old Doumbouya is a successful commander of Guinea’s elite special forces group with training from the U.S, French, and Isreal military. On October 1, 2021 he was sworn in as interim president of Guinea. He promises to oversee a transition that would include the drafting of a new constitution, fighting corruption, electoral reform and the organization of free and transparent elections.The junta has said its members will be barred from standing in the next elections.

What does this mean for Guinea now?

It's the fourth attempted coup in West Africa in just over a year. There have been two military takeovers in Mali and a failed attempt in Niger since August 2020. This successful coup may lead to more instability for guinea in addition to making the region more vulnerable to attacks by Islamic Militant. The country is one of the largest suppliers of bauxite, a key source of aluminium. And this violent disruption may severely impact commodity prices.

How did international leaders respond?

UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and the African Union have condemned the apparent coup and demanded the immediate release of President Condé. The Economic Community of West African States, a regional bloc, has frozen assets and imposed travel bans on the junta, hoping to encourage a swift return to democracy. A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department also issued a statement denouncing the military takeover, saying, "violence and extra-constitutional measures will erode Guinea's prospects for peace, stability, and prosperity."

The new coup/ government is destined for failure?

With no-one to hold them to account, there's no guarantee they'll deliver on their promises. The incoming transitional government will be ill-equipped to respond to civil grievances and lacks sufficient accountability measures to ensure good governance. Ultimately, it is the Guinean people who will pay the price of this democratic setback.These power grabs threaten a reversal of the democratization process Africa has undergone in the past two decades and a return to the era of coups as the norm.This increasing probability of coups will make Africa in general less predictable and stable, a negative for investors that could end up worsening the economic situation.